Population and growth causality in developing countries.
Population and growth causality in developing countries.
复制标题
发展中国家的人口和增长因果关系。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Kapuria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Kapuria
本研究实证检验了15个发展中国家的人口增长与经济增长之间无因果关系和经济增长与人口增长之间无因果关系的零假设。该模型遵循Cheng Hsiao形式，具有滞后长度以最小化Akaike的最终预测误差（FPE）。每个国家的方程式都是分开计算的。按照三个步骤进行滞后长度和格兰杰因果关系检验。1)每一个变量都根据其滞后值进行回归，最大滞后期为5年。选择最小化FPE的滞后长度，为每次回归计算FPE。2)使用群体生长的固定滞后长度和其他变量的混合滞后长度运行双变量回归，直到确定使FPE最小化的滞后长度。3)最后一步是通过保持经济增长的滞后固定来检查人口增长的滞后长度。经济增长的衡量标准是人均国内生产总值。调查结果表明，在七个国家，人口增长与经济增长之间没有因果关系的零假设，无论是积极的还是消极的，都不能被拒绝（加纳、斯里兰卡、玻利维亚、菲律宾、叙利亚、泰国和阿根廷）。在尼泊尔、印度、中国、危地马拉、秘鲁、土耳其、智利和墨西哥，人口增长滞后值改善了对经济增长的预测。较高的经济增长对尼泊尔、玻利维亚、菲律宾、危地马拉、秘鲁、泰国、阿根廷和墨西哥的人口增长率没有重大影响。在印度、中国、土耳其和智利发现了经济增长和人口增长之间的相互作用。因果关系检验的方向表明，人口增长对中国、危地马拉、土耳其、智利和墨西哥的收入增长有显著的积极影响。印度显示出人口增长对收入的负面影响。只有在斯里兰卡，经济增长对人口增长的重大负面影响才很明显。在印度有积极影响的证据不足。这个符号是负数，对其他国家来说并不重要。没有证据支持两个变量之间的一致性偏倚。证据支持人口增长对经济增长有积极影响的理论。
This study empirically tests the null hypotheses of no causality between population growth and economic growth and of no causality between economic growth and population growth in 15 developing countries. The model follows the Cheng Hsiao form with lag lengths to minimize Akaike's Final Prediction Error (FPE). Equations are run separately for each country. Lag lengths and Granger causality test were chosen according to three steps. 1) Each of the variables was regressed on its own lagged values with a maximum lag of five years. A lag length was chosen that minimized FPE, which was calculated for each regression. 2) Bivariate regressions were run with a fixed lag length for population growth and mixed lag lengths for the other variable, until the lag length which minimized FPE was determined. 3) The last step involved checking the lag length of population growth by keeping the lag fixed for economic growth. The economic growth measure was gross domestic product per capita. Findings indicate that in seven countries the null hypothesis of no causality between population growth and economic growth, either positive or negative, cannot be rejected (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, Philippines, Syria, Thailand, and Argentina). In Nepal, India, China, Guatemala, Peru, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico lagged values of population growth improve predictions of economic growth. Higher economic growth has no significant effect on population growth rates in Nepal, Bolivia, Philippines, Guatemala, Peru, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Interaction between economic growth and population growth was found in India, China, Turkey, and Chile. The direction of causation tests indicate that population growth has a significant positive impact on income growth in China, Guatemala, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico. India shows a negative impact of population growth on income. A significant negative impact of economic growth on population growth is evident only in Sri Lanka. There is weak evidence of a positive influence in India. The sign is negative and not significant for the other countries. There was no evidence to support simultaneity bias between the two variables. The evidence lends support to the theory that population growth has a positive impact on economic growth.