Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador
Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador
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DOI：
10.1007/s10346-015-0618-x
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发表时间：
2015-08
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
A. Posner;K. Georgakakos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Posner;K. Georgakakos
描述了滑坡灾害威胁级别区域预报系统的开发，适合预报和灾害管理机构的操作使用。该系统利用空间分布式业务水文模型，利用遥感数据和现场降水数据来估算 160 平方公里流域规模的深度整合土壤湿度。深度整合的土壤湿度数据和降水强迫与滑坡发生的区域数据库一起使用，以开发降水/土壤湿度空间中的阈值曲线，从而可以在卫星衍生的降雨像素尺度上预测滑坡灾害威胁级别。然后，可以将预定的敏感性图与特定降雨像素的危险威胁水平的实时预测一起使用，以确定像素内更有可能实时失败的坡度，并将给定像素表征为对滑坡敏感或不敏感，以进行实时预测。操作系统开发需要短延迟的全球卫星降水估算、来自该地区稀疏雨量计的实时降水数据，以及包含位置和时间信息的历史滑坡事件的区域数据库。支持业务水文模型的参数数据库由深度土壤质地和土地利用/土地覆盖信息组成。所提供的案例研究是针对萨尔瓦多国家的。该研究表明了区域系统开发的可行性，并验证了由深度积分土壤湿度和强迫降水组成的二维空间中假设存在阈值曲线的验证。通过对萨尔瓦多 2006 年至 2011 年期间的数据进行检查，得出的阈值曲线显示，对于确定易发生滑坡的盆地，滑坡发生的频率范围在 1% 到 5% 的天数范围内。
Described is the development of a regional forecasting system for landslide hazard threat level, suitable for use operationally by forecasting and disaster management agencies. The system utilizes spatially distributed operational hydrologic models to estimate depth-integrated soil moisture on basin scales of order 160 km2, with forcing of remotely sensed and on-site precipitation data. The depth-integrated soil moisture data and the precipitation forcing are used together with regional databases of landslide occurrence to develop threshold curves in the precipitation/soil moisture space that allow the prediction of landslide hazard threat level on satellite-derived rainfall pixel scales. Predetermined susceptibility maps may then be used together with the real-time prediction of hazard threat level for a particular rainfall pixel to determine the slopes within the pixel that are more likely to fail in real time and to characterize a given pixel as susceptible or non-susceptible to landsliding for real-time prediction. The operational system development requires global satellite precipitation estimates with short latency, real-time precipitation data from sparse rain gauges in the region, and a regional database of historical landslide events with location and timing information. Parametric databases that support the operational hydrologic model consist of soil texture by depth and land-use/land-cover information. The case study presented is for the country of El Salvador. The study shows the feasibility of the regional system development and the validation of the assumed existence of a threshold curve in two-dimensional space consisting of the depth-integrated soil moisture and of the forcing precipitation. The resulting threshold curve, when examined with data from the period 2006–2011 in El Salvador, resulted in warnings of landslide occurrence with frequency that spanned the range between 1 and 5 % of the days for the basins identified to be susceptible to landsliding.