Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
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DOI：
10.1353/dem.2005.0003
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Bongaarts, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, J
在这里报告的研究中，我有两个目标：（1）测试一个新版本的logistic模型，用于年龄特定的成人死亡率随时间的变化模式;（2）开发一种新的方法来预测成人死亡率的未来趋势。对死亡力的Logistic模型拟合优度的检验表明，其斜率参数随时间的推移几乎是恒定的。这一发现表明了该模型的一种变体，称为转移逻辑模型。提出了一种基于移动死亡率模型的新的投影方法，并与广泛使用的Lee-Carter方法进行了比较。
In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.