Characteristics of patients with novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the first surge versus the second surge of infections in Osaka Prefecture, Japan
Characteristics of patients with novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the first surge versus the second surge of infections in Osaka Prefecture, Japan
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DOI：
10.35772/ghm.2020.01102
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sobue, Tomotaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takeuchi, Taro;Kitamura, Tetsuhisa;Sobue, Tomotaka
在日本，尚未完全了解第一次和第二次感染高峰之间新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）患者的特征、严重程度和死亡率的差异。本研究是对2020年2月1日至8月31日在日本大阪府确诊的COVID-19患者进行的回顾性队列研究。公开的患者信息是从大阪府网站上收集的。根据实验室检测结果阳性日期将患者分为两组：第一组（2月1日至5月22日）和第二组（5月23日至8月31日）。比较两组患者的特征。采用多变量Cox比例风险模型比较两组患者的严重程度和死亡率，其中调整了性别、发病时年龄组、居住城市和检测阳性天数。计算风险比（hr）和95%置信区间（ci）。共有8541名患者，其中第一次和第二次激增的患者分别为1780名和6761名。第二次发病时，发病日年龄较年轻（p < 0.001），发病日至阳性检测日的中位天数从7天缩短至6天（p < 0.001）。多变量Cox比例风险模型显示，第二次高潮的严重程度和死亡率均低于第一次高潮（严重程度：HR: 0.51[0.39-0.67]；死亡率：HR: 0.37[0.25-0.56]）。总而言之，日本大阪府第二次COVID-19患者的严重程度和死亡率低于第一次激增。
In Japan, the differences in characteristics, severity, and mortality of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients between the first and second surges of infections have not been fully understood. This study is a retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients confirmed between February 1 and August 31, 2020 in Osaka Prefecture, Japan. Publicly available information on patients was collected from the website of Osaka Prefecture. Patients were divided into two groups according to the date of the positive laboratory test result: the first surge (February 1 to May 22) and the second surge (May 23 to August 31). Patients' characteristics were compared between the two groups. A multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model was applied to compare severity and mortality between the two groups, where sex, age group at the onset date, city of residence, and days to test positive were adjusted. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 8,541 patients included 1,780 and 6,761 patients in the first and second surges, respectively. Age at the onset date was younger in the second surge (p < 0.001), and median of days from the onset date to the positive test date shortened from 7 to 6 days (p < 0.001). The multivariable Cox proportionalhazards model revealed that both severity and mortality were lower in the second surge than in the first surge (severity: HR: 0.51 [0.39-0.67]; mortality: HR: 0.37 [0.25-0.56]). In conclusion, severity and mortality were lower in the second surge than in the first surge among COVID-19 patients in Osaka Prefecture, Japan.