Initial evidence on the relationship between the coronavirus pandemic and crime in the United States
Initial evidence on the relationship between the coronavirus pandemic and crime in the United States
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DOI：
10.1186/s40163-020-00117-6
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发表时间：
2020-05-18
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Ashby, Matthew P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ashby, Matthew P. J.
2019冠状病毒病大流行导致数百万美国人的日常活动发生重大变化，许多企业和学校关闭，公共活动取消，各州实施居家令。本文使用警方记录的公开犯罪数据来了解2020年前几个月美国16个大城市常见类型犯罪的频率变化情况。使用往年的季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）犯罪模型来预测2020年在没有大流行的情况下的预期犯罪频率。然后将这些模型的预测结果与大流行最初几个月的实际犯罪频率进行比较。在公共场所发生严重袭击的频率没有显著变化，或者（与政策制定者的担忧相反）在住宅发生严重袭击的频率没有任何变化。在一些城市，住宅盗窃案有所减少，但非住宅盗窃案变化不大。部分城市机动车盗窃案有所减少，但机动车盗窃案的模式存在差异。这些结果用于为未来研究冠状病毒大流行与不同犯罪之间的关系提出建议。
The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial changes in the daily activities of millions of Americans, with many businesses and schools closed, public events cancelled and states introducing stay-at-home orders. This article used police-recorded open crime data to understand how the frequency of common types of crime changed in 16 large cities across the United States in the early months of 2020. Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of crime in previous years were used to forecast the expected frequency of crime in 2020 in the absence of the pandemic. The forecasts from these models were then compared to the actual frequency of crime during the early months of the pandemic. There were no significant changes in the frequency of serious assaults in public or (contrary to the concerns of policy makers) any change to the frequency of serious assaults in residences. In some cities, there were reductions in residential burglary but little change in non-residential burglary. Thefts of motor vehicles decreased in some cities while there were diverging patterns of thefts from motor vehicles. These results are used to make suggestions for future research into the relationships between the coronavirus pandemic and different crimes.