Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: A case study of Shanghai, China
Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: A case study of Shanghai, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2008.12.002
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发表时间：
2009-06-30
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
Imura, Hidefumi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Han, Ji;Hayashi, Yoshitsup;Imura, Hidefumi
在快速城市化的背景下，准确评估城市增长对于了解环境影响和支持城市规划实现可持续发展变得越来越必要。本文将系统动力学与元胞自动机相结合，提出了一种用于社会经济驱动力分析和城市空间格局评价的元胞自动机模型。本文选取中国上海市作为案例进行研究。主要研究结果如下：（1）综合模型能够有效地监测和预测城市增长的动态变化。(2)从2000年到2020年，上海的城市面积预计将以每年3%的速度增长。2020年为1474km（2）。从空间上看，城市新增用地最有可能向城市中心或副中心周边扩展，并主要沿着东西轴线和南北轴线扩展。道路网规划在指导城市新区土地开发利用中起着重要作用。(C)2008 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
In the context of rapid urbanization, accurate assessment of urban growth has become increasingly necessary for understanding environmental impacts and supporting urban planning toward a sustainable development. in this paper, we present an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model not only in socio-economic driving forces analysis but also in urban spatial pattern evaluation. Shanghai city in China is selected as a case to fulfill the tasks. The major findings are summarized as follows: (1) the integrated model is proved to be competent in monitoring and projecting the dynamics of urban growth. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the urban area of Shanghai is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 3%. and amount 1474 km(2) in 2020. Spatially, the newly increased urban land is most likely to expand around the vicinity of city center or sub-centers, and mainly along a west-east axis and a north-south axis. Road network planning plays an important role in directing the development of newly urbanized land. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.