Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change
Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12877
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Sears, Michael W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Carlo, Michael A.;Riddell, Eric A.;Sears, Michael W.
在具有复杂生命周期的生物体中，个体发育对气候变化的耐受能力往往各不相同。最近开发的物种分布模型，包括跨生命阶段的特征，然而，这些生命周期模型主要评估致死变化的影响。在这里，我们研究的影响，经常性的亚致死变暖的发展和生存的气候变化的生态预测。我们在实验室里饲养蜥蜴胚胎，温度循环模拟了当代条件和变暖的情景。我们还人工加热天然巢穴以模拟实验室处理。在这两种情况下，经常性的亚致死温度降低胚胎存活率和孵化的大小。与没有纳入亚致死变暖的模型相比，将生存率结果纳入机械物种分布模型将使年生存率降低高达24%。与没有亚致死效应的模型相反，我们的模型表明，由于对生存的影响，发育温度的适度增加会影响物种范围。
The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.