Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research
Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research
复制标题
气候研究中知识和无知的来源
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0186-6
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
T. O’Kane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Risbey;T. O’Kane
无知是气候变化研究的一个不可避免的组成部分，但在气候评估的标准不确定性指导文件中没有专门照顾到这一点。关于理解中的无知的报告需要上下文来解释这种无知如何影响和不影响更普遍的理解。这篇文章的重点是在区域气候变化预测的动力学来源的无知。预测中忽视的一个主要原因是，对耦合气候模式中海洋部分动力不稳定性的处理分辨率有限。这一限制的后果是，很难量化对气候变量的区域预测的不确定性，因为这些变量严重依赖于大气流动的细节。在区域预测中量化或减少不确定性的标准方法是基于捕捉和代表关键动力不稳定性的模型，这对于目前的耦合模型是值得怀疑的。这一限制并不适用于所有区域预测，也不适用于温室气候变化的基本结论。大部分已知的都不是高度依赖于流动的，并且是根据基础良好的辐射物理学和热力学原理得出的。对区域气候预测的无知进行更严格的评估，将有助于扩大区域气候预测的应用领域。
Ignorance is an inevitable component of climate change research, and yet it has not been specifically catered for in standard uncertainty guidance documents for climate assessments. Reports of ignorance in understanding require context to explain how such ignorance does and does not affect understanding more generally. The focus of this article is on dynamical sources of ignorance in regional climate change projections. A key source of ignorance in the projections is the resolution-limited treatment of dynamical instabilities in the ocean component of coupled climate models. A consequence of this limitation is that it is very difficult to quantify uncertainty in regional projections of climate variables that depend critically upon the details of the atmospheric flow. The standard methods for quantifying or reducing uncertainty in regional projections are predicated on the models capturing and representing the key dynamical instabilities, which is doubtful for present coupled models. This limitation does not apply to all regional projections, nor does it apply to the fundamental findings of greenhouse climate change. Much of what is known is not highly flow-dependent and follows from well grounded radiative physics and thermodynamic principles. The growing field of applications of regional climate projections would benefit from a more critical appraisal of ignorance in these projections.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Woollings;J. Knight;G. Martin;T. Hinton
通讯作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Woollings;J. Knight;G. Martin;T. Hinton