Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change
Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/jbi.13115
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
van Woesik, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cacciapaglia, C.;van Woesik, R.
目标：由于气候变化，珊瑚礁正在经历越来越频繁和强度的令人不安的温暖海洋温度。研究表明，随着气温继续上升，大多数珊瑚种群可能会减少，尽管以前的一些物种分布模型预测，普遍存在的物种，如主要造礁珊瑚物种Porites lobata，将在预测的气候变化下增加其分布。然而，这些预测模型假设种群中的所有个体都能够忍受物种地理范围内的整个环境条件。遗传隔离和当地适应的影响没有考虑在物种分布模型，假设遗传连续的人口。我们的目标是通过比较连续和孤立的亚群，确定三种气候变化情景下无处不在的物种裂叶松物种分布建模中遗传隔离和局部适应的影响。地点：印度洋和太平洋。方法：我们对裂叶连翘进行了一个新的物种分布模型，将其分为五个地理上孤立的区域，横跨印度洋和太平洋，并研究了物种对三种气候变化情景的反应（即，A2、A1 B和B1，最近被认为是到2100年的代表性浓度路径8.5、6.0和4.5 Wm（-2）。与之前预测裂叶连翘全球扩张的均匀物种分布模型相比，（-5 +/-1%），我们预测在五个区域中的四个区域中，特别是在太平洋中部（>99% +/-1%），
Aim: Coral reefs are experiencing both an increasing frequency and intensity of anomalously warm ocean temperatures because of climate change. Studies show that the majority of coral populations will likely decline as temperatures continue to increase, although some previous species-distribution models predict that ubiquitous species, such as the primary reef-building coral species Porites lobata, will increase their distribution under projected climate change. These predictive models, however, assume that all individuals of a population are able to tolerate the entire range of environmental conditions within the species' geographic range. The effects of genetic isolation and local adaptation are not considered in species-distribution models that assume genetically contiguous populations. We aim to determine the effects of genetic isolation and local adaptation in species-distribution modelling of the ubiquitous species P. lobata under three climate change scenarios by comparing contiguous and isolated subpopulations.Location: Indian and Pacific Oceans.Methods: We ran a novel species-distribution model for P. lobata, segregated as five geographically isolated regions across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and examined the species response to three climate-change scenarios (i.e., A2, A1B and B1, most recently considered as Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 Wm(-2)) by the year 2100.Results: In contrast with previous homogeneous species-distribution models that predict a global expansion of P. lobata, (-5 +/- 1%), we predict major losses of suitable habitat for P. lobata in four of the five regions examined, particularly in the central Pacific Ocean (>99% +/-