Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer-scale stages of reproduction
Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer-scale stages of reproduction
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DOI：
10.1002/aps3.1225
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
HilleRisLambers, Janneke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellwood, Elizabeth R.;Primack, Richard B.;HilleRisLambers, Janneke
植物标本馆的标本越来越多地用于研究生殖物候。在这里，我们要问的是，将繁殖分类到逐渐精细的阶段是否能提高我们对气候和繁殖物候之间关系的理解。方法我们评估了北美东部的红槭标本，将其分为8个生殖物候期和4个叶发育阶段。我们拟合模型与不同的生殖物候分类方案（从详细到广泛），并比较模型拟合和系数描述温度，海拔和年的影响。我们适合类似的模型，叶物候数据比较生殖叶物候。结果更精细尺度的生殖物候改善了模型拟合，并提供了更精确的生殖物候估计。然而，具有较少生殖表型的模型导致类似的定性结论，表明A。在较温暖的地方，较低的海拔，近年来，以及红叶物候是受温度的影响不太强烈，比生殖物候。讨论我们的研究表明，生殖物候的详细信息提供了一个更全面的了解潜在的气候变化对开花，结果，和叶了。然而，具有较少生殖物候期的分类方案提供了许多类似的见解，并且在资源有限的情况下可能是优选的。
Premise of the Study Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer-scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology. Methods We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology. Results Finer-scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology. Discussion Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf-out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited.