The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy
The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy
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意大利 COVID-19 流行期间人员流动与病毒传播之间的关系
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Merler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Paolo Cintia;D. Fadda;F. Giannotti;L. Pappalardo;Giulio Rossetti;D. Pedreschi;S. Rinzivillo;P. Bonato;Francesco Fabbri;Francesco Penone;Marcello Savarese;D. Checchi;Francesca Chiaromonte;P. Vineis;G. Guzzetta;F. Riccardo;V. Marziano;P. Poletti;F. Trentini;A. Bella;X. Andrianou;M. Manso;M. Fabiani;S. Bellino;S. Boros;A. M. Urdiales;M. Vescio;S. Brusaferro;G. Rezza;P. Pezzotti;M. Ajelli;S. Merler
我们在这份报告中描述了我们为了解人类流动性与新冠肺炎传播之间的关系而进行的研究，以帮助管理封锁后社会和经济活动的重启，并监测未来几周和几个月的疫情。我们比较了意大利每日流动流量的演变(从2020年1月至5月)，这是通过全国移动电话数据衡量的，而传染性的演变是通过净繁殖数量衡量的，即在存在控制干预和人类行为适应的情况下，一个主要感染者产生的二次感染的平均数量。我们发现，在意大利所有地区，在3月11日至3月18日期间，流动流量的负变化与净再生产数量之间存在显著的关系。这一观察结果使我们能够量化“切断”乡村迁徙所需的时间(一周)和将净繁殖量降至1以下所需的时间(一周)。一个相当简单的回归模型提供了证据，表明净再生产数量与一个地区的流入、流出和内部流动相关。我们还发现，由于封锁的影响，流动流量显著减少之前超过流行病阈值的天数与每10万居民中确认的SARS-CoV-2感染总数之间存在强烈的关系，从而间接表明封锁和其他非药物干预措施在遏制传染病方面的有效性。我们的研究证明了“大”流动性数据对于监测关键的流行病指标的价值，以便在未来几个月疫情展开时为选择提供信息。
We describe in this report our studies to understand the relationship between human mobility and the spreading of COVID-19, as an aid to manage the restart of the social and economic activities after the lockdown and monitor the epidemics in the coming weeks and months. We compare the evolution (from January to May 2020) of the daily mobility flows in Italy, measured by means of nation-wide mobile phone data, and the evolution of transmissibility, measured by the net reproduction number, i.e., the mean number of secondary infections generated by one primary infector in the presence of control interventions and human behavioural adaptations. We find a striking relationship between the negative variation of mobility flows and the net reproduction number, in all Italian regions, between March 11th and March 18th, when the country entered the lockdown. This observation allows us to quantify the time needed to "switch off" the country mobility (one week) and the time required to bring the net reproduction number below 1 (one week). A reasonably simple regression model provides evidence that the net reproduction number is correlated with a region's incoming, outgoing and internal mobility. We also find a strong relationship between the number of days above the epidemic threshold before the mobility flows reduce significantly as an effect of lockdowns, and the total number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100k inhabitants, thus indirectly showing the effectiveness of the lockdown and the other non-pharmaceutical interventions in the containment of the contagion. Our study demonstrates the value of "big" mobility data to the monitoring of key epidemic indicators to inform choices as the epidemics unfolds in the coming months.