Vanishing winters in Germany: soil frost dynamics and snow cover trends, and ecological implications
Vanishing winters in Germany: soil frost dynamics and snow cover trends, and ecological implications
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DOI：
10.3354/cr00996
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Henry, Hugh A. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kreyling, Juergen;Henry, Hugh A. L.
目前的气候模式在预测冬季平均气温的趋势方面是有效的;然而，其他与生态相关的参数，如积雪和土壤霜冻动力学，却没有得到很好的研究。预计这些参数的变化将产生强烈的生态影响，特别是在温带地区，那里不确定未来是否会经常发生雪和土壤霜冻。我们探讨了1950-2000年德国177个气象站的地面积雪日（雪日）、最低土壤温度（MST）和土壤冻融循环次数（FTC，即在5 cm深度的任何一对连续土壤温度记录中从负到正的符号变化）的趋势。通过基于气候和地形预测因子的统计建模，探讨了未来的趋势。在最近的过去，降雪日以0.5 d yr（-1）的速率均匀减少。预计这一趋势将持续到德国大部分地区将不再经常出现积雪的程度。MST已经增加，预计未来还会增加，主要是在德国南部。最近一段时间，金融交易中心一直在均匀下降。没有证据表明，增加FTCs或减少MST与减少绝缘，由于失踪的积雪被发现。FTCs预计将减少不成比例地在东北部德国，过去的频率较高。所研究的气候参数的发生率和幅度显著下降的生态影响包括土壤表面越冬生物的养分循环、生产力和生存的变化。需要进行生态研究，因为人们还不太了解冬季减少对生态系统的影响。
Current climate models are effective at projecting trends in mean winter temperature; however, other ecologically relevant parameters-such as snow cover and soil frost dynamics-are less well investigated. Changes in these parameters are expected to have strong ecological implications, especially in the temperate zone, where it is uncertain whether snow and soil frost will occur with regularity in the future. We explored trends in days with snow on the ground (snowdays), minimum soil temperature (MST), and number of soil freeze/thaw cycles (FTCs, i.e. changes in sign from negative to positive in any pair of consecutive soil temperature records at 5 cm depth) at 177 German weather stations for 1950-2000. Future trends were explored by statistical modelling based on climatic and topographic predictors. Snowdays decreased uniformly at a rate of 0.5 d yr(-1) in the recent past. This trend is projected to continue to a point where significant parts of Germany will no longer regularly experience snow cover. MST has increased, and is projected to do so in the future, mainly in southern Germany. FTCs have been decreasing uniformly in the recent past. No evidence for increased FTCs or decreased MST with decreasing insulation due to missing snow cover was found. FTCs are projected to decrease disproportionately in northeastern Germany, where past frequencies were higher. Ecological implications of the significant decrease in the occurrence and magnitude of the climate parameters studied include changes in nutrient cycling, productivity and survival of organisms over wintering at the soil surface. Ecological research is needed, as the effects of diminished winters on ecosystems are not well understood.