TOWARD INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS OF IGA NEPHROPATHY
TOWARD INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS OF IGA NEPHROPATHY
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DOI：
10.1038/ki.1986.33
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发表时间：
1986-02-01
影响因子：
19.6
通讯作者：
VANDERHEM, GK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BEUKHOF, JR;KARDAUN, O;VANDERHEM, GK
使用比例风险模型研究了从活检到终末期肾病的成人 IgA 肾病患者的个体预后。在选择了最相关的预后因素后，75 名患者根据高血压及其治疗进行了分层。在这些阶层中，个体预后基于（1）初始年龄调整的肾小球滤过率，（2）初始蛋白尿，（3）是否存在肉眼血尿，以及（4）是否存在镜下血尿。使用患者对这些变量的评分，可以通过图形或计算来估计在任何给定时间段内生存的概率。预测的可行性长达 10 年左右。已注意为所有相关估计提供置信限度。对于每位患者，将模型预测的估计 5 年生存概率与实际结果进行比较。
The individual prognosis of adult IgA nephropathy patients was studied using the proportional hazards model for the time from biopsy until endstage renal disease. After selection of the most relevant prognostic factors, the 75 patients were stratified with respect to hypertension and its treatment. In these strata, individual prognosis was based on (1) the initial age-adjusted glomerular filtration rate, (2) the initial proteinuria, (3) the presence/absence of gross hematuria, and (4) the presence/absence of microscopic hematuria. Using the scores of a patient on these variables, the probability of surviving any given period of time can be estimated either graphically or by calculation. Prediction is feasible up to about 10 years. Attention has been given to supply all relevant estimates with confidence limits. For each patient the estimated 5-year survival probability as predicted by the model was compared with the actual outcome.