OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR INFLUENZA-A EPIDEMICS
OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR INFLUENZA-A EPIDEMICS
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DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(78)90023-8
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发表时间：
1978-01-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
ELVEBACK, LR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LONGINI, IM;ACKERMAN, E;ELVEBACK, LR
建立了一个封闭分层人群中甲型流感单波传播的确定性模型。该模型指定代理人的特点和非均匀的混合模式，在一个标准化的美国社区各年龄组之间。该模型预测的亚洲和香港流感病毒株的发病率与先前描述的随机模拟模型预测的发病率一致。确定性模型，然后再加上一个优化配方，选择最佳的疫苗分配模式，在不同的年龄组时，有一定数量的疫苗。最优疫苗分配模式。这些模式各不相同，这取决于特定的甲型流感病毒株建模，疫苗的数量和目标函数的成本结构。
A deterministic model is developed to describe a single wave of influenza A in a closed stratified population. The model specifies agent characteristics and nonhomogeneous mixing patterns among various age groups in a standardized American community. Attack rates predicted by the model for the Asian and Hong Kong strains of influenza agree with those predicted by a previously described stochastic simulation model. The deterministic model is then coupled with an optimization formulation which selects the optimal vaccine distribution pattern among the various age groups when there is a limited quantity of vaccine available. Optimal vaccine distribution patterns are given. These patterns vary, depending on the particular strain of influenza A modeled, the quantity of vaccine available and the cost structure of the objective function.