Prediction of wetland biodiversity pattern under the current land-use mode and wetland sustainable management in Sanjiang Plain, China
Prediction of wetland biodiversity pattern under the current land-use mode and wetland sustainable management in Sanjiang Plain, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109990
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发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Y. Qu;Xing Zeng;Chunyu Luo;Hongqiang Zhang;H. Ni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Qu;Xing Zeng;Chunyu Luo;Hongqiang Zhang;H. Ni
湿地的破坏和退化日益加剧。现存湿地的生物多样性正受到前所未有的威胁。确定湿地生物多样性的未来发展趋势是为湿地生物多样性保护和管理提供预警的关键步骤。然而，研究主要集中在目前的生物多样性评估和保护，而不是强调对未来变化的预测。结合湿地生物多样性模拟的关键指标（湿地格局和水文连通性; PHC）和土地利用预测的CA_Markov的优势，提出了湿地生物多样性预测框架。以三江平原为例，预测了研究区湿地生物多样性的变化趋势，并对各保护区湿地生物多样性的潜在损失进行了评估。结果表明，耕地占用是导致研究区湿地生物多样性空间格局变化的主要原因。根据2010 - 2015年的土地利用发展趋势，2020 - 2030年研究区湿地PHC指数将显著下降，框架预测的湿地生物多样性将由中等水平向低水平转变（生物多样性保护价值平均下降7.40%，湿地面积减少2.74%）。由于水文连通性的降低，研究区的每个保护区都将经历不同程度的生物多样性退化。该研究提出的湿地生物多样性预测框架可为区域尺度上湿地生物多样性变化趋势预测提供技术支持，为保护区尺度上湿地生物多样性长期保护和监测策略提供预警参考。
Wetland destruction and degradation have been increasing gradually. The biodiversity of the remaining wetlands is under unprecedented threat. Identifying the future trend of wetland biodiversity is a critical step to provide early warnings for wetland biodiversity protection and management. However, studies have focused mainly on the current biodiversity assessment and protection, without emphasizing on the prediction of future changes. Combining the advantages of the key indicators of wetland biodiversity simulation (wetland pattern and hydrological connectivity; PHC) and CA_Markov of land use prediction, this study proposes a prediction framework for wetland biodiversity. Taking Sanjiang Plain as an example, this study predicted the changing trend of wetland biodiversity in the study area and evaluated the potential loss of wetland biodiversity in each reserve. The results revealed that the cultivated land occupation mainly caused the change in the spatial patterns of wetland biodiversity in the study area. According to the land use development trend from 2010 to 2015, the indexes of wetland PHC in the study area will decline significantly from 2020 to 2030, and the wetland biodiversity predicted by our framework will be transformed from the medium to the low level (the biodiversity conservation value will decrease 7.40% on average, with the wetland area reduced by 2.74%). Each reserve in the study area will experience various degrees of degradation in biodiversity due to the decrease in hydrological connectivity. The framework of wetland biodiversity prediction proposed in this study can provide technical support for predicting the changing trend in wetland biodiversity at the regional scale and a reference for long-term protection and monitoring strategies of wetland biodiversity at the reserve scale as an early warning.