Extirpated prairie species demonstrate more variable phenological responses to warming than extant congeners
Extirpated prairie species demonstrate more variable phenological responses to warming than extant congeners
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DOI：
10.1002/ajb2.1684
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发表时间：
2021-06-16
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Lau，Jennifer A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zettlemoyer，Meredith A.;Renaldi，Katarina;Lau，Jennifer A.
前言：改变物候以适应气候是一种可以促进种群持久性和地理扩散的机制；因此，从物候上跟踪变化环境条件的能力有限的物种可能更容易受到种群下降的影响。或者，明显无反应的物种可能表现出对不同季节经历的多种环境条件的不同反应。方法利用美国中西部地区的植物标本馆记录和详细的植物学调查记录了过去一个世纪的局部灭绝，我们调查了灭绝和现存的物种在过去一个世纪对冬春季(开花期间和开花前的生长季)温度和降水的物候反应是否存在差异，或者在过去一个世纪开花时间转移的幅度上是否不同。灭绝的物种对较暖的春季温度表现出不一致的物候反应，而现存的物种则一致地提前开花以响应较暖的春季温度。相比之下，灭绝的物种比现存的物种更提前开花，以应对更温暖的冬季温度。较大的春季降雨量往往会推迟已灭绝和现存分类群的开花时间。最后，灭绝的和现存的分类群都随着时间的推移推迟了开花。结论他的研究强调了了解物候对季节变暖的反应的重要性，并表明灭绝的物种可能比现存的同类物种对温度表现出更多的不同的物候反应，这一发现与适当的物候反应可以降低物种灭绝的可能性的假设一致。
PREMISEShifting phenology in response to climate is one mechanism that can promote population persistence and geographic spread; therefore, species with limited ability to phenologically track changing environmental conditions may be more susceptible to population declines. Alternatively, apparently nonresponding species may demonstrate divergent responses to multiple environmental conditions experienced across seasons.METHODSCapitalizing on herbarium records from across the midwestern United States and on detailed botanical surveys documenting local extinctions over the past century, we investigated whether extirpated and extant taxa differ in their phenological responses to temperature and precipitation during winter and spring (during flowering and the growing season before flowering) or in the magnitude of their flowering time shift over the past century.RESULTSAlthough warmer temperatures across seasons advanced flowering, extirpated and extant species differed in the magnitude of their phenological responses to winter and spring warming. Extirpated species demonstrated inconsistent phenological responses to warmer spring temperatures, whereas extant species consistently advanced flowering in response to warmer spring temperatures. In contrast, extirpated species advanced flowering more than extant species in response to warmer winter temperatures. Greater spring precipitation tended to delay flowering for both extirpated and extant taxa. Finally, both extirpated and extant taxa delayed flowering over time.CONCLUSIONSThis study highlights the importance of understanding phenological responses to seasonal warming and indicates that extirpated species may demonstrate more variable phenological responses to temperature than extant congeners, a finding consistent with the hypothesis that appropriate phenological responses may reduce species’ likelihood of extinction.