Projections of Extreme Ocean Waves in the Arctic and Potential Implications for Coastal Inundation and Erosion
Projections of Extreme Ocean Waves in the Arctic and Potential Implications for Coastal Inundation and Erosion
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DOI：
10.1029/2019jc015745
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Wang, Xiaolan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Casas-Prat, Merce;Wang, Xiaolan L.
由于海冰的退缩，北冰洋的波浪气候正在发生巨大的变化。本文利用5个CMIP5（耦合模式比较项目第5阶段）气候模式模拟了历史时期（1975-2005年）和RCP8.5情景未来时期（2081-2100年）对应于地表风和海冰浓度的北极区域波浪气候。由于波浪更容易受到秋季风暴的影响，预计离岸地区的年最大有效浪高将增加至6米，比1979-2005年的相应值高出两至三倍。由于涌浪影响的增加，预计大西洋和北极波浪气候之间的联系将加强。波浪方向的变化似乎也表明了波弗特高压的减弱，在北极西部极端条件下，平均波浪方向的逆时针旋转表明了这一点。波浪条件的预估变化导致沿北极海岸线波浪驱动的侵蚀和淹没潜力的普遍增加。潜在的，危险的极端海浪事件预计将变得更加频繁和更加强烈。例如，在波弗特海岸线，在历史气候（1979-2005）下，预计2081-2100年期间平均每2-5年发生一次20年一次的事件。这是一个紧迫的问题，因为它影响到许多北极沿海社区，以及现有和新兴的北极基础设施和活动，其中一些在过去几年中已经遭受了严重的海浪造成的破坏。北冰洋波浪气候正急剧变化，海冰显著退缩。这项研究提出了北冰洋历史和未来波浪气候的模拟。结果表明，到本世纪末，随着无冰季节的延长和波浪在秋季更容易受到风暴的影响，最大的波浪将明显更高更长。此外，预计北极波浪气候将更多地受到北大西洋远程产生的海浪的影响，这些海浪将能够传播到高纬度地区。这也可能导致北极典型波浪方向模式的变化。预计未来能量更大的海浪可能对北极海岸线构成威胁，因为可能导致侵蚀和淹没的极端海浪事件将更加频繁和强烈。这是一个紧迫的问题，因为它影响到许多现有的北极沿海社区和北极基础设施和活动，其中一些在过去几年中已经遭受了严重破坏。
The Arctic Ocean wave climate is undergoing a dramatic change due to the sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations of the Arctic regional wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1975-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. The annual maximum significant wave height is projected to increase up to 6m offshore and up to two to three times greater than the corresponding 1979-2005 value along some coastlines, as waves become more exposed to the fall storms there. The connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic wave climates is projected to strengthen due to increase of swell influence. Changes in the wave direction also seem to indicate a weakening of the Beaufort High illustrated by a counterclockwise rotation of the mean wave direction for extreme conditions in the Western Arctic. The projected changes in wave conditions lead to a general increase of the wave-driven erosion and inundation potential along the Arctic coastlines. Potentially, hazardous extreme wave events are projected to become significantly more frequent and more intense. For example, in the Beaufort coastlines a once-in-20-year event under the historical (1979-2005) climate is projected to occur, on average, once every 2-5 years during 2081-2100. This is a pressing issue, as it affects many Arctic coastal communities, as well as existing and emerging Arctic infrastructure and activities, with some of them having already suffered severe wave-induced damage in the past years.Plain Language Summary The Arctic Ocean wave climate is drastically changing with remarkable sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations of historical and future wave climates for the Arctic Ocean. The results show that the largest waves will be significantly higher and longer by the end of the century as the ice-free season lengthens and waves become more exposed to storms in autumn. Moreover, the Arctic wave climate was projected to be more influenced by ocean waves remotely generated in the North Atlantic, which will be able to propagate to higher latitudes. This could also lead to changes in the typical wave direction patterns in the Arctic. The more energetic waves projected for the future are likely to pose a hazard to the Arctic coastlines, as the extreme wave events that can cause erosion and inundation will be more frequent and intense. This is a pressing issue, as it affects many existing Arctic coastal communities and Arctic infrastructure and activities, some of which have already suffered severe damage in the past years.