Why residual emissions matter right now
Why residual emissions matter right now
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-022-01592-2
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发表时间：
2023-03-09
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Markusson, Nils
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buck, Holly Jean;Carton, Wim;Markusson, Nils
净零目标意味着持续的残余排放将通过二氧化碳的去除来平衡。然而，残余排放通常在概念上或数量上没有很好的定义。我们分析了各国政府提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的长期战略，以探索剩余排放的预测，包括数量和部门。我们发现，在温室气体净零排放的情况下，剩余排放水平相当可观，平均占附件一国家当前排放量的18%。大多数战略对剩余排放将来自哪些部门不准确，很少有战略对如何通过碳去除来平衡剩余排放提出具体预测。我们的研究结果表明，需要对剩余排放进行一致的定义，并对各国对剩余排放的预期进行标准化和比较。这是必要的，有两个原因：一是为了避免预测过多的残留物和相应的不可持续或不可行的碳去除水平，二是为了发出更清晰的信号，说明化石燃料的使用是暂时的。残余排放作为净零排放计划的重要组成部分，应进行透明和具体的分析。通过对国家长期战略的研究，作者发现目前的剩余排放没有明确的定义，也不太可能通过陆地碳去除来平衡。
Net-zero targets imply that continuing residual emissions will be balanced by carbon dioxide removal. However, residual emissions are typically not well defined, conceptually or quantitatively. We analysed governments' long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC to explore projections of residual emissions, including amounts and sectors. We found substantial levels of residual emissions at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, on average 18% of current emissions for Annex I countries. The majority of strategies were imprecise about which sectors residual emissions would originate from, and few offered specific projections of how residual emissions could be balanced by carbon removal. Our findings indicate the need for a consistent definition of residual emissions, as well as processes that standardize and compare expectations about residual emissions across countries. This is necessary for two reasons: to avoid projections of excessive residuals and correspondent unsustainable or unfeasible carbon-removal levels and to send clearer signals about the temporality of fossil fuel use.Residual emissions, as a noticeable component of net-zero plans, should be analysed transparently and with specificity. By examining the national long-term strategies, the authors find that currently residual emissions are not clearly defined and are unlikely to be balanced by land-based carbon removal.