Climatic Change Can Influence Species Diversity Patterns and Potential Habitats of Salicaceae Plants in China
Climatic Change Can Influence Species Diversity Patterns and Potential Habitats of Salicaceae Plants in China
复制标题
气候变化会影响中国杨柳科植物的物种多样性格局和潜在栖息地
作者：
Li Wenqing;Shi Mingming;Huang Yuan;Chen Kaiyun;Sun Hang;Chen Jiahui
杨柳科是北方半球温带木本植物的一个科，在生态和经济上都具有很高的价值。中国是这些植物物种多样性最高的国家。尽管杨柳科植物被人类广泛使用，但其物种多样性模式的形成仍不清楚，这些可能会受到全球气候变暖的显着影响。利用过去、现在和未来的环境数据和2673个地理参考标本记录，首次模拟了杨柳科植物适宜生境和种群结构的动态变化。在此基础上，我们接下来确定了在不同气候变化情景/年下栖息地丧失和人口下降的高风险地区。通过构建杨柳科215种植物的生态位模型，绘制了物种多样性格局图，并对影响其多样性格局的驱动因子进行了评价。生态位模型表明，杨柳科在末次冰间期经历了广泛的种群扩张，但在末次冰盛期和自末次冰盛期以来向低纬度地区撤退。展望未来，随着气候变暖加剧，适宜的栖息地将转移到高纬度地区，而低纬度地区的栖息地将变得不那么丰富。最后，中国西部地区杨柳科植物的特有性和物种多样性最高，且受年降水量、平均气温、UV-B辐射以及降水季节性异常的影响。从这些结果中，我们推断水-能量动态平衡和历史气候变化都可能是调节当代物种多样性和分布格局的主要因素。然而，这项工作也表明，其他可能相互作用的因素（环境能量，干扰历史，土壤条件）影响大规模格局杨柳科物种多样性在中国，使一个简单的解释是不可能的。由于中国西南地区在末次盛冰期可能是杨柳科植物的避难所，因此是目前特有种研究的热点。在气候变化的影响下，杨柳科植物在西南地区的生存可能面临更大的风险，因此迫切需要支持其就地保护。
Salicaceae is a family of temperate woody plants in the Northern Hemisphere that are highly valued, both ecologically and economically. China contains the highest species diversity of these plants. Despite their widespread human use, how the species diversity patterns of Salicaceae plants formed remains mostly unknown, and these may be significantly affected by global climate warming. Using past, present, and future environmental data and 2673 georeferenced specimen records, we first simulated the dynamic changes in suitable habitats and population structures of Salicaceae. Based on this, we next identified those areas at high risk of habitat loss and population declines under different climate change scenarios/years. We also mapped the patterns of species diversity by constructing niche models for 215 Salicaceae species, and assessed the driving factors affecting their current diversity patterns. The niche models showed Salicaceae family underwent extensive population expansion during the Last Inter Glacial period but retreated to lower latitudes during and since the period of the Last Glacial Maximum. Looking ahead, as climate warming intensifies, suitable habitats will shift to higher latitudes and those at lower latitudes will become less abundant. Finally, the western regions of China harbor the greatest endemism and species diversity of Salicaceae, which are significantly influenced by annual precipitation and mean temperature, ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, and the anomaly of precipitation seasonality. From these results, we infer water–energy dynamic equilibrium and historical climate change are both the main factors likely regulating contemporary species diversity and distribution patterns. Nevertheless, this work also suggests that other, possibly interacting, factors (ambient energy, disturbance history, soil condition) influence the large-scale pattern of Salicaceae species diversity in China, making a simple explanation for it unlikely. Because Southwest China likely served as a refuge for Salicaceae species during the Last Glacial Maximum, it is a current hotspot for endemisms. Under predicted climate change, Salicaceae plants may well face higher risks to their persistence in southwest China, so efforts to support their in-situ conservation there are urgently needed.