Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective
Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective
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DOI：
10.1029/2023gl104126
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发表时间：
2023-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
S. Cropper;C. Thackeray;J. Emile‐Geay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Cropper;C. Thackeray;J. Emile‐Geay
尽管几十年来的努力，以限制平衡气候敏感性（ECS），目前最好的估计仍然表现出很大的差距。过去的研究试图通过各种方法，包括紧急约束，以减少ECS的不确定性。一个例子是使用过去世纪的全球温度变化来限制ECS。虽然这种方法显示出了希望，但它受到了批评，因为它对人为强迫的影响很敏感，而且用于计算温度变率的仪器记录长度有限。在这里，我们调查ECS和全球温度变化的两个指标之间的紧急关系，在过去的千年（850-1999）使用模型模拟和古气候重建。我们发现经验证据支持这些新兴的关系。观测限制表明，ECS的中心估计值为2.6-2.8 K，与政府间气候变化专门委员会的共识估计值3 K一致。此外，他们建议ECS“可能”范围为1.8-3.3 K和2.0-3.6 K。
Despite decades of effort to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), current best estimates still exhibit a large spread. Past studies have sought to reduce ECS uncertainty through a variety of methods including emergent constraints. One example uses global temperature variability over the past century to constrain ECS. While this method shows promise, it has been criticized for its susceptibility to the influence of anthropogenic forcing and the limited length of the instrumental record used to compute temperature variability. Here, we investigate the emergent relationship between ECS and two metrics of global temperature variability using model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions over the last millennium (850–1999). We find empirical evidence in support of these emergent relationships. Observational constraints suggest a central ECS estimate of 2.6–2.8 K, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's consensus estimate of 3K. Moreover, they suggest ECS “likely” ranges of 1.8–3.3 K and 2.0–3.6 K.