The Paris Agreement: China's 'New Normal' role in international climate negotiations
The Paris Agreement: China's 'New Normal' role in international climate negotiations
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DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2016.1228521
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Kerr, Oliver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hilton, Isabel;Kerr, Oliver
2015年巴黎第21届缔约方会议在政治上的成功，与6年前的2009年哥本哈根会议的外交失败形成了鲜明对比。促成这一成功的原因是中国在国际气候变化谈判中成为一个更积极的参与者。尽管自本世纪头十年中期以来，中国一直在努力降低能源和碳排放强度，但在哥本哈根会议上，中国谈判代表小心翼翼地避免将国内应对气候变化的行动与任何有关国际义务的假设联系起来。这与巴黎的情况形成鲜明对比，在巴黎，中国第一次愿意承诺对排放量进行绝对限制，接受国际测量、报告和核查(MRV)。本文考察了2009年至2015年间的变化，使中国能够在全球气候机制中发挥更具建设性的作用。报告认为，变革的一个关键驱动因素是中国向新常态经济发展模式的转变。从“十二五”时期(2011年至2015年)开始，中国的经济政策优先考虑从以重工业、出口和投资为基础的能源密集型增长，向更平衡的经济转型，其特征是增长放缓，服务业和国内消费的作用越来越大，并注重创新和低碳技术。这一过渡让中国有机会重新制定其在国际气候谈判中的优先事项，并帮助为加强与美国的气候合作铺平了道路，而缺乏这种合作曾是哥本哈根会议取得成功的一大障碍。一系列外部因素进一步推动了进展，包括在第21届缔约方会议之前令人印象深刻的法国外交，以及向自下而上的自愿承诺的重要转变。政策相关性本文分析了中国在巴黎第21届缔约方会议上更具建设性的参与背后的原因，这对会议的成功做出了贡献。考虑到中国在将气温上升控制在安全水平方面的关键作用，政策制定者更好地理解中国的立场转变及其背后的动机是很重要的。现在需要落实在巴黎达成的协议，绝不能保证成功。更深入地了解这一关键角色的立场只能有助于谈判进程、执行阶段以及加强目标所需的进一步谈判。
The political success of the Paris COP 21 in 2015 contrasted sharply with the diplomatic breakdown at Copenhagen six years before in 2009. Contributing to this success was China's emergence as a more positive participant in the international climate change negotiations. Despite efforts to reduce energy and carbon intensity since the mid-2000s, Chinese negotiators in Copenhagen were careful not to link domestic action on climate change to any presumptions of international obligation. This stands in marked contrast to Paris where, for the first time, China was willing to commit to an absolute cap on emissions subject to international measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV). This article examines what changed between 2009 and 2015 such that China was able to play a more constructive role in the global climate regime. It argues that a key driver of change was China's shift to a 'New Normal' model of economic development. Beginning in the 12th Five Year Plan Period (2011-2015), China's economic policy prioritized a transition from energy-intensive growth based on heavy industry, exports and investment, to a more balanced economy characterized by slower growth, an increasing role for services and domestic consumption, and a focus on innovation and low-carbon technologies. This transition gave China the opportunity to re-formulate its priorities in international climate negotiations and helped pave the way for increased climate cooperation with the US, the lack of which had been a major roadblock to success in Copenhagen. Progress was further facilitated by a range of external factors, including impressive French diplomacy in the run-up to COP21 and the important shift to a bottom-up, voluntary approach to commitments.Policy relevanceThis article analyses the reasons behind China's more constructive engagement at COP 21 in Paris, which contributed to the Conference's successful outcome. It is important for policy makers to better comprehend China's shifting position and the motivations behind it, given the country's key role in keeping temperature rise at a safe level. The deal reached in Paris now needs to be implemented, and success is by no means guaranteed. A deeper understanding of the position of this key player can only help with the negotiation process, implementation phase, and further negotiations that are needed to strengthen targets.