Impacts of Historical Atmospheric and Oceanic Warming on Heavy Snowfall in December 2020 in Japan
Impacts of Historical Atmospheric and Oceanic Warming on Heavy Snowfall in December 2020 in Japan
复制标题
历史大气和海洋变暖对日本2020年12月大雪的影响
DOI：
10.1029/2022jd036996
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Watanabe S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kawase H.;Imada Y.;Watanabe S.
2020年12月中旬，强冷空气爆发导致日本海沿岸内陆地区出现大雪。这48小时的累积降雪量打破了日本气象厅（JMA）一些观测站的降雪记录。我们调查了自工业化前以来由于历史全球变暖而导致的大气和海洋温度变化对这次大雪事件的影响。使用JMA开发的非静力模式进行了后播和伪非变暖实验。历史气候差异来自未来气候变化政策决策数据库（d4PDF）。我们的实验表明，历史上的全球变暖增强了整个地区的降水，并增强了日本海一侧内陆地区的强降雪。在这一事件中，由于变暖，降雪转化为降雨的贡献在沿海地区是有限的。降水的增强主要是由于海洋变暖，增加了日本海上空的潜热通量，使低层大气变得不稳定。由于大气稳定化，历史上大气变暖抑制了降水。结果表明，12月的强降雪是由暖海温下的冷空气爆发引起的，并受历史上全球变暖的影响而增强。
Strong cold air outbreaks caused heavy snowfall over the inland areas of the Sea of Japan coast of Japan in mid‐December 2020. The 48‐hr accumulated snowfall during the term broke a snowfall record at some observational stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). We investigated the impacts of atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes due to historical global warming since the pre‐industrial period on this heavy snowfall event. Hindcast and pseudo non‐warming experiments were conducted using the nonhydrostatic model developed by the JMA. The historical climatic differences were obtained from the database for policy decision‐making for future climate change (d4PDF). Our experiments indicated that historical global warming enhanced precipitation over the whole region and enhanced heavy snowfall over the inland areas on the Sea of Japan side. In this event, the contribution of conversion from snowfall to rainfall due to warming was limited over coastal areas. The enhancement of precipitation was mainly caused by oceanic warming, which increased latent heat flux over the Sea of Japan and made the low‐level atmosphere less stable. Historical atmospheric warming suppressed precipitation due to atmospheric stabilization. Our results indicated that the heavy snowfall was caused by the cold air outbreaks under the warm sea surface temperatures in December and enhanced by historical global warming.