Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan
Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2013.08.009
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Higuchi, Tomoyuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Saito, Masaya M.;Imoto, Seiya;Higuchi, Tomoyuki
为了了解2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行在日本局部地区的演变，我们研究了这些地区之间的地区迁移的意义。为此，我们采用了一个扩展的SEIR模型来描述感染者的迁移和传染效率的随机变化。然后，我们应用数据同化技术，以研究如何与观测数据的模拟结果的协议取决于移民的存在/不存在和感染效率的变化程度。通过对数似然值来评估再现性。对数似然并不表明移民的意义。虽然在报告的感染人数的时间进程中有多个波，但这些波可以用传染病事件的随机性来解释。(C)2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
In order to understand the evolution of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic within local regions of Japan, we studied the significance of regional migration between these regions. For this purpose, we have employed an extended SEIR model to describe the immigration of infected people and the stochastic variation of the infectious efficiency. We then applied a data assimilation technique in order to study how the agreement of the simulation results with the observed data depends on the presence/absence of immigration and the degree of variation of the infectious efficiency. Reproducibility is evaluated by log-likelihood values. The log-likelihood does not indicate the significance of immigration. Although there are multiple waves in the time course of the number of reported infected individuals, these waves could be explained by the stochastic nature of infectious events. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.