Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality
Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343308094325
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Reinert, Gesine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johnson, Neil F.;Spagat, Michael;Reinert, Gesine
最近，整群抽样被用来估计世界各地各种冲突的死亡率。The Burnham et al.《关于伊拉克的研究》采用了这种整群抽样方法的新变体。Burnham等人陈述的方法。就是(1)选择一条随机的主街，(2)选择一条通往这条主街的随机十字街，(3)在十字街上随机选择一户来开始这一过程。作者表明，这种新的整群抽样方法可能会在结果估计中引入意想不到的但实质性的偏差，因为这些街道是巡逻队、车队、警察局、路障、咖啡馆和街头市场的自然栖息地。这种偏见的产生是因为与主要街道交叉的家庭的居民比那些住在更远的地方的家庭更有可能受到暴力的影响。在这里，作者开发了一个数学模型来衡量偏差的大小，并使用现有的证据来提出支持该模型的参数的值。研究表明，伯纳姆等人。对伊拉克冲突死亡率的研究可能大大高估了死亡率。事实上，最近发布的伊拉克家庭健康调查几乎涵盖了与Burnham等人相同的时间段。研究使用了基于人口普查的抽样技术，并得出了暴力死亡的中央估计，这是Burnham等人的四分之一。估计一下。作者提供了敏感性分析，以帮助读者通过改变参数值来调整他们自己对这种偏差程度的判断。Burnham等人发布的高分辨率数据将使这一主题的未来进展受益。学习。
Cluster sampling has recently been used to estimate the mortality in various conflicts around the world. The Burnham et al. study on Iraq employs a new variant of this cluster sampling methodology. The stated methodology of Burnham et al. is to (1) select a random main street, (2) choose a random cross street to this main street, and (3) select a random household on the cross street to start the process. The authors show that this new variant of the cluster sampling methodology can introduce an unexpected, yet substantial, bias into the resulting estimates, as such streets are a natural habitat for patrols, convoys, police stations, roadblocks, cafes, and street-markets. This bias comes about because the residents of households on cross-streets to the main streets are more likely to be exposed to violence than those living further away. Here, the authors develop a mathematical model to gauge the size of the bias and use the existing evidence to propose values for the parameters that underlie the model. The research suggests that the Burnham et al. study of conflict mortality in Iraq may represent a substantial overestimate of mortality. Indeed, the recently published Iraq Family Health Survey covered virtually the same time period as the Burnham et al. study, used census-based sampling techniques, and produced a central estimate for violent deaths that was one fourth of the Burnham et al. estimate. The authors provide a sensitivity analysis to help readers to tune their own judgements on the extent of this bias by varying the parameter values. Future progress on this subject would benefit from the release of high-resolution data by the authors of the Burnham et al. study.