Spatially explicit residential and working population assumptions for projecting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan
Spatially explicit residential and working population assumptions for projecting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan
复制标题
用于预测和评估日本自然资本和生态系统服务的空间明确的居住和工作人口假设
DOI：
10.1007/s11625-018-0605-y
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Hashimoto Shizuka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matsui Takanori;Haga Chihiro;Saito Osamu;Hashimoto Shizuka
在生物多样性和生态系统服务的情景研究中，人口分布是关键驱动力之一。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个耦合方法的叙事方案和空间明确的居住和工作人口的设计，为所有日本作为一个共同的数据集，生态系统情景分析实施的5年项目，题为“预测和评估自然资本和生态系统服务（PANCES）”。PANCES项目以人口分布和资本偏好两个轴为主要不确定性，提出了四种叙述性情景。第一产业的居住人口和工作人口是使用基于重力的分配算法计算的，其方式与PANCES情景的故事情节一致。使用人口分布假设的情景，人口与自然资本和生态系统服务的供应潜力相叠加。研究结果有助于理解自然资本和可维持性之间的差距，以及生态系统服务的潜力和可实现性。空间上明确的人口分布数据产品有望帮助设计自然保护战略和治理方案的社会系统和生态系统。
In scenario studies of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the population distribution is one of the key driving forces. In this study, we developed a coupling method for narrative scenarios and spatially explicit residential and working population designs for all of Japan as a common dataset for ecosystem scenario analysis implemented by 5-year project entitled “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)”. Four narrative scenarios were proposed by the PANCES project using two axes as major uncertainties: the population distribution and the capital preference. The residential population and the working population in primary industries were calculated using a gravity-based allocation algorithm in a manner consistent with the storylines of the PANCES scenarios. Using the population distribution assumption by scenario, the population was overlaid with the natural capital and the supply potential of ecosystem services. The results supported to understand the gaps between natural capital and maintainability, and the potential of ecosystem services and realizability. The spatially explicit population distribution data products are expected to help design the nature conservation strategy and governance option in terms of both social system and ecological system.