Macroclimate Determines the Global Range Limit of Aedes aegypti
Macroclimate Determines the Global Range Limit of Aedes aegypti
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DOI：
10.1007/s10393-014-0918-y
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Sousa, Carla A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Capinha, Cesar;Rocha, Jorge;Sousa, Carla A.
埃及伊蚊是世界范围内登革热和其他一些疾病的主要传播媒介。由于这种蚊子的家庭性质，大气候在塑造其分布方面的相对重要性一直是一个有争议的问题。我们在这里捕捉到了A.埃及人在上个世纪。我们评估了这些信息的能力，以预测物种的观察到的分布使用超大陆空间不相关的数据。我们进一步预测了在两种气候变化情景下，殖民地气候在不久的将来（2010-2039年）的分布。我们的研究结果表明，大气候在很大程度上是负责设置的最大范围限制A。在不久的将来，超出这一界限的相对广阔的地区将获得该物种以前占据的大气候。通过将我们的预测与严格基于物种-气候关系的先前模型（即，排除人类的影响），我们还发现了支持这一假设的证据，即大部分物种在温带和亚热带地区的分布范围是由人工环境维持的。总之，这些研究结果表明，如果该物种通常利用的国内环境在新的适宜地区，其分布可能会在不久的将来大大扩大。
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue and a number of other diseases worldwide. Because of the domestic nature of this mosquito, the relative importance of macroclimate in shaping its distribution has been a controversial issue. We have captured here the worldwide macroclimatic conditions occupied by A. aegypti in the last century. We assessed the ability of this information to predict the species' observed distribution using supra-continental spatially-uncorrelated data. We further projected the distribution of the colonized climates in the near future (2010-2039) under two climate-change scenarios. Our results indicate that the macroclimate is largely responsible for setting the maximum range limit of A. aegypti worldwide and that in the near future, relatively wide areas beyond this limit will receive macroclimates previously occupied by the species. By comparing our projections, with those from a previous model based strictly on species-climate relationships (i.e., excluding human influence), we also found support for the hypothesis that much of the species' range in temperate and subtropical regions is being sustained by artificial environments. Altogether, these findings suggest that, if the domestic environments commonly exploited by this species are available in the newly suitable areas, its distribution may expand considerably in the near future.