Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading.
Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z
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发表时间：
2021-07-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Tozer CR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Risbey JS;Squire DT;Black AS;DelSole T;Lepore C;Matear RJ;Monselesan DP;Moore TS;Richardson D;Schepen A;Tippett MK;Tozer CR
气候预测技能的评估取决于评估者的选择。从这个角度来看，我们使用厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的预测来概述偏差校正对技能的影响。许多对后报（过去的预报）技能的评估可能高估了可达到的预报技能，因为后报是由评估期间的观测提供信息的，而这些观测不适用于真实的预报。后报和预测技巧之间的差异是由于模型偏差从形成预测异常的时期到做出预测的时期的变化造成的。模型的相对技能排名可以在后报和预测系统之间变化，因为不同的模型在不同时期有不同的偏差变化。已经开发了许多不同的方法来预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）等气候现象，这使得公平比较它们的能力至关重要。从这个角度来看，作者讨论了如何选择评估方法可能会导致高估感知技能的ENSO预测。
Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from hindcasts (past forecasts) are probably overestimates of attainable forecast skill because the hindcasts are informed by observations over the period assessed that would not be available to real forecasts. Differences between hindcast and forecast skill result from changes in model biases from the period used to form forecast anomalies to the period over which the forecast is made. The relative skill rankings of models can change between hindcast and forecast systems because different models have different changes in bias across periods. Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.
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