E-bikes and their capability to reduce car CO2 emissions
E-bikes and their capability to reduce car CO2 emissions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.019
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发表时间：
2021-11-30
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Chatterton, Tim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philips, Ian;Anable, Jillian;Chatterton, Tim
我们估算了用私家车代替电动自行车出行减少二氧化碳排放的最大能力。我们使用空间微观模拟（人口合成）来模拟成年人口在英格兰的每一个小区域内，考虑到人口的区域类型和地理人口情况。通过估计个人骑电动自行车的距离以及他们能够在多大程度上取代私家车出行，我们发现通过用汽车出行取代电动自行车使用来减少二氧化碳排放的上限是每年24.4公吨二氧化碳。(per年）在英国。人均和小面积二氧化碳减排能力最高（人均每年超过750 kg CO2）为农村地区和农村城市边缘地区的居民提供服务。电动自行车为大城市提供了人均更适度的二氧化碳减排能力。我们确定了容易受到汽车相关经济压力影响的地区，并且也有很高的能力用电动自行车取代汽车公里数，如果得到适当的支持，可以有助于公平的碳减排。虽然能够对运输碳减排做出非常重大的贡献，但要实现零排放，还需要进行其他技术变革和减少需求。我们的研究结果与国际政策参与者直接相关，他们需要以地点为基础的脱碳能力证据，特别是在汽车依赖程度较高的地方。研究结果强调，在任何试图设计公平碳减排政策的努力中，背景是多么重要，既要影响关于可能性的讨论，也要切实确定有针对性的干预领域。由于决策的快速数字化，覆盖一个国家地理所有区域的数字指标也很有用。我们提供代码，以便其他人可以在其他国家进行类似的分析
We estimate the maximum capability to reduce CO2 by substituting private car travel for e-bike. We use spatial microsimulation (population-synthesis) to simulate the adult population within every small area in England, taking account of area type and geodemographic circumstances of the population. By estimating for individuals the distance they are capable of travelling by e-bike and the extent to which they are capable of replacing private car travel, we find the upper limit on the capability to reduce CO2 by substituting car travel for e-bike use is 24.4 MTCO2 p.a. (per annum) in England. CO2 saving capability per person and per small area are highest (over 750 kg CO2 per person p.a.) for residents of rural areas and the rural urban fringe. e-bikes offer major conurbations more modest CO2 saving capability per person. We identify areas which are vulnerable to car related economic stress and also have high capability to replace car km with e-bikes, which if supported appropriately could contribute to equitable carbon reduction. Though capable of a very significant contribution to transport carbon reduction, other changes in technology and reduction in demand would also be necessary to reach zero emissions.Our results are directly relevant to policy actors internationally who require evidence on place-based decarbonisation capability, particularly where car dependence is high. The results highlight how context is important in any attempt to design policy for equitable carbon reduction both to influence discussion on what is possible, as well as practical identification of areas for targeted intervention. Digital indicators covering all zones in a country's geography such as this are also useful because of the rapid digitalisation of policy making. We provide code so that others can produce similar analyses in other countries