Lyme Disease Models of Tick-Mouse Dynamics with Seasonal Variation in Births, Deaths, and Tick Feeding
Lyme Disease Models of Tick-Mouse Dynamics with Seasonal Variation in Births, Deaths, and Tick Feeding
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DOI：
10.1007/s11538-023-01248-y
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发表时间：
2024-03-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Allen，Linda J. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Husar，Kateryna;Pittman，Dana C.;Allen，Linda J. S.
莱姆病是美国最常见的媒介传播疾病，影响东北部和中西部的发病率最高。最近，它已在加拿大东南部和中南部地区建立起来。在这些地区，莱姆病是由伯氏疏螺旋体引起的，它通过受感染的螺旋体传播给人类。了解寄主与寄主之间的相互作用是至关重要的，因为白足鼠是b病毒最有能力的宿主之一。burgdorferi。蜱虫幼虫以受感染的老鼠为食，这些老鼠蜕皮为受感染的若虫，然后将疾病传播给另一个易感宿主，如老鼠或人类，从而推动了感染的循环。人类的莱姆病通常是由受感染的若虫叮咬引起的。本研究的主要目的是研究滞育延迟以及蜱的出生、死亡和摄食的人口统计学和季节性变化如何影响蜱-鼠循环的感染动态。我们通过延迟和常微分方程（ode）建立了具有固定滞育延迟和更现实的Erlang分布延迟的嘀嗒-鼠标动力学模型。为了考虑人口统计和季节变化，ode被推广到连续时间马尔可夫链（CTMC）。计算了ode的基本再现数和参数灵敏度分析。CTMC用于调查当蜱虫和老鼠被引入时莱姆病出现的概率，其中一些被感染。疾病出现的概率高度依赖于时间和引入的感染物种。在夏季引入的受感染小鼠导致疾病出现的可能性最高。
Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States impacting the Northeast and Midwest at the highest rates. Recently, it has become established in southeastern and south-central regions of Canada. In these regions, Lyme disease is caused byBorrelia burgdorferi, which is transmitted to humans by an infectedIxodes scapularistick. Understanding the parasite-host interaction is critical as the white-footed mouse is one of the most competent reservoir forB. burgdorferi. The cycle of infection is driven by tick larvae feeding on infected mice that molt into infected nymphs and then transmit the disease to another susceptible host such as mice or humans. Lyme disease in humans is generally caused by the bite of an infected nymph. The main aim of this investigation is to study how diapause delays and demographic and seasonal variability in tick births, deaths, and feedings impact the infection dynamics of the tick-mouse cycle. We model tick-mouse dynamics with fixed diapause delays and more realistic Erlang distributed delays through delay and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). To account for demographic and seasonal variability, the ODEs are generalized to a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). The basic reproduction number and parameter sensitivity analysis are computed for the ODEs. The CTMC is used to investigate the probability of Lyme disease emergence when ticks and mice are introduced, a few of which are infected. The probability of disease emergence is highly dependent on the time and the infected species introduced. Infected mice introduced during the summer season result in the highest probability of disease emergence.