Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1421533112
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发表时间：
2015-03-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Kushnir, Yochanan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kelley, Colin P.;Mohtadi, Shahrzad;Kushnir, Yochanan
在2011年开始的叙利亚起义之前，新月沃地经历了有仪器记录以来最严重的干旱。对于治理不善、农业和环境政策不可持续的叙利亚来说，干旱具有催化作用，助长了政治动荡。我们表明，最近叙利亚降水的减少是自然变化和长期干燥趋势的结合，如果没有这种趋势，观察到的干旱的异常严重程度是极不可能的。叙利亚的降水变化与东地中海平均海平面压力上升有关，这也显示出长期趋势。地中海东部也有长期变暖的趋势，这加剧了土壤湿度的下降。这些趋势没有明显的自然原因，而观测到的干燥和变暖与对温室气体增加的响应的模式研究相一致。此外，模式研究表明，地中海东部未来的平均气候将越来越干燥和炎热。对观测结果和模式模拟的分析表明，与当前冲突有关的叙利亚最近干旱的严重程度和持续时间，由于人类对气候系统的干预，发生干旱的可能性增加了一倍以上。
Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.