Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.
Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30938-8
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发表时间：
2017-09-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
RSV Global Epidemiology Network
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文献类型：
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作者：
Shi T;McAllister DA;O'Brien KL;Simoes EAF;Madhi SA;Gessner BD;Polack FP;Balsells E;Acacio S;Aguayo C;Alassani I;Ali A;Antonio M;Awasthi S;Awori JO;Azziz-Baumgartner E;Baggett HC;Baillie VL;Balmaseda A;Barahona A;Basnet S;Bassat Q;Basualdo W;Bigogo G;Bont L;Breiman RF;Brooks WA;Broor S;Bruce N;Bruden D;Buchy P;Campbell S;Carosone-Link P;Chadha M;Chipeta J;Chou M;Clara W;Cohen C;de Cuellar E;Dang DA;Dash-Yandag B;Deloria-Knoll M;Dherani M;Eap T;Ebruke BE;Echavarria M;de Freitas Lázaro Emediato CC;Fasce RA;Feikin DR;Feng L;Gentile A;Gordon A;Goswami D;Goyet S;Groome M;Halasa N;Hirve S;Homaira N;Howie SRC;Jara J;Jroundi I;Kartasasmita CB;Khuri-Bulos N;Kotloff KL;Krishnan A;Libster R;Lopez O;Lucero MG;Lucion F;Lupisan SP;Marcone DN;McCracken JP;Mejia M;Moisi JC;Montgomery JM;Moore DP;Moraleda C;Moyes J;Munywoki P;Mutyara K;Nicol MP;Nokes DJ;Nymadawa P;da Costa Oliveira MT;Oshitani H;Pandey N;Paranhos-Baccalà G;Phillips LN;Picot VS;Rahman M;Rakoto-Andrianarivelo M;Rasmussen ZA;Rath BA;Robinson A;Romero C;Russomando G;Salimi V;Sawatwong P;Scheltema N;Schweiger B;Scott JAG;Seidenberg P;Shen K;Singleton R;Sotomayor V;Strand TA;Sutanto A;Sylla M;Tapia MD;Thamthitiwat S;Thomas ED;Tokarz R;Turner C;Venter M;Waicharoen S;Wang J;Watthanaworawit W;Yoshida LM;Yu H;Zar HJ;Campbell H;Nair H;RSV Global Epidemiology Network
我们此前曾估计，2005年，在所有(严重)急性下呼吸道感染中，有22%与呼吸道合胞病毒有关，导致5岁以下儿童死亡55 000至199 000。在过去5年中，有关呼吸道合胞病毒的重大研究活动产生了来自发展中国家的大量新数据。通过一个来自大型国际合作的相当大的扩展数据集，我们的目标是估计2015年全球儿童RSV-ALRI发作的发病率、住院率和死亡率。根据对1995年1月1日至2016年12月31日发表的研究和76项高质量人口研究的未发表数据的系统回顾，我们估计了5岁以下儿童中RSV相关ALRI(RSV-ALRI)的发病率和住院率，这些儿童按年龄和世界银行收入地区分层。我们使用基于风险因素的模型和2015年人口估计估计了132个发展中国家的RSV-ALRI发病率。我们通过结合住院病死率和基于医院的(已发表和未发表的)研究的入院估计来估计住院RSV-ALRI死亡率。我们还通过确定报告社区ALRI死亡率和RSV活动的月度数据的研究来估计RSV-ALRI的总体死亡率。我们估计，2015年全球有3310万次呼吸道合胞病毒-急性呼吸窘迫综合征(RSV-ALRI)发作(不确定范围为21.650.3)，导致约320万(2.73.8亿)人住院，59 600(48 000-74 500)5岁以下儿童住院死亡。在6个月以下的儿童中，140万(UR 1.2-1.7)住院和27 300(UR 20 700-36 200)住院死亡是由于呼吸道合胞病毒-ALRI。我们还估计，呼吸道合胞病毒-急性呼吸道合胞病毒感染的总死亡率可能高达118 200(UR 94 600-149 400)。在任何给定的人群中，发病率和死亡率每年都有很大的变化。在全球范围内，呼吸道合胞病毒是儿童ALRI的常见原因，也是幼儿入院的主要原因，对卫生保健服务造成重大负担。大约45%的因RSV-ALRI住院和住院死亡发生在6个月以下的儿童中。一种有效的母体RSV疫苗或单抗可能对这一年龄段的疾病负担产生重大影响。比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会。
We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6–50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7–3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000–74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2–1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700–36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600–149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.