Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation
Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2353
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Gilligan, Christopher A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bajzelj, Bojana;Richards, Keith S.;Gilligan, Christopher A.
最近的研究表明，目前产量提高的趋势将不足以满足2050年预计的全球粮食需求，并表明需要进一步扩大农业面积。然而，农业是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素，也是气候变化和污染的主要因素，因此进一步扩张是不可取的。通常提出的替代方案-集约化和增加资源使用-也有负面影响。因此，必须找到办法，在不扩大作物或牧场面积、不增加温室气体排放的情况下实现全球粮食安全。一些作者强调了可持续集约化在缩小全球目前实现的产量与可能实现的产量之间的差距方面的作用。然而，在本文中，我们使用一个透明的数据驱动模型来表明，即使产量差距缩小，预计需求也将推动农业进一步扩张。然而，在需求方面有一些减少的备选办法很少得到考虑。在本文的第二部分，我们量化了需求侧缓解方案的潜力，并表明改善饮食和减少食物浪费对于实现减排和提供2050年的全球粮食安全至关重要。
Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative-intensification with increased resource use-also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasized a role for sustainable intensification in closing global yield gaps between the currently realized and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.