Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in Britain, 2010
Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in Britain, 2010
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DOI：
10.1080/17457289.2011.562614
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发表时间：
2011-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Clarke;David Sanders;Marianne C. Stewart;P. Whiteley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Clarke;David Sanders;Marianne C. Stewart;P. Whiteley
摘要本文介绍了2010年英国大选中影响选举选择的力量的分析结果。这些分析主要基于竞选互联网小组调查（CIPS）中收集的数据，该调查是2010年英国选举研究（BES）的一部分。对选举选择的竞争模型的测试表明，与早期的英国选举一样，效价政治模型为投票决定提供了强有力的解释。然而，正如在这些早期的比赛中，基于空间建模传统的模型也有助于了解选民如何在2010年做出决定。本文最后重申了主要的调查结果，并讨论了为什么保守党未能在一个似乎非常适合他们这样做的背景下获得多数席位。
Abstract This paper presents the results of analyses of forces shaping electoral choice in the 2010 British general election. The analyses are based primarily on data gathered in the Campaign Internet Panel Survey (CIPS) that was conducted as part of the 2010 British Election Study (BES). Tests of rival models of electoral choice reveal that, as in earlier British elections, a valence politics model provides a strong explanation of voting decisions. However, as in those earlier contests, a model based on the spatial modelling tradition also contributes to understanding how voters made up their minds in 2010. The paper concludes by reprising major findings and discussing why the Conservatives failed to secure a majority in a context seemingly ideally suited for them to do so.