Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania
Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania
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DOI：
10.2989/10220110409485850
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发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Sunderland, Jennifer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Galvin, Kathleen A.;Thornton, Philip K.;Sunderland, Jennifer
东非牧区的适应和脆弱性，以气候多变性和气候变化的评估，从决策过程中的数据和恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区的马赛人的生态数据为例。本文采用综合建模，将家庭模型PHEWS与生态系统模型SAVANNA联系起来，研究干旱和一系列多雨年份对马赛牧民福祉的影响。模型结果表明，生态系统是相当有弹性的，并表明，马赛的NCA是不是很容易受到气候变化。然而，国家协调局的经济形势岌岌可危，粮食不安全的情况普遍存在，没有干旱。结果是干旱对人们产生了非常负面的影响。
East African pastoral adaptation and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data from decision-making processes and ecological data of the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area as an example. The paper uses integrated modeling, linking PHEWS, a household model, to SAVANNA, an ecosystem model to look at the effects of drought and a series of wet years on the well-being of Maasai pastoralists. Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that the Maasai of the NCA are not very vulnerable to climate variability. However the economic situation in the NCA is precarious and food insecurity is prevalent without drought. The result is that drought has a very negative effect on people.