Climate Simulators and Climate Projections
Climate Simulators and Climate Projections
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115652
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发表时间：
2014-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Rougier;M. Goldstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Rougier;M. Goldstein
我们对气候建模的当前实践提供了统计解释。在这篇评论中，我们定义了天气和气候，澄清了模拟器输出和模拟器气候之间的关系，区分了气候模拟器和统计气候模型，提供了对普遍存在的异常校正实践的统计解释，沿着了实质性的概括（最佳参数方法），并将模拟器/数据比较解释为后验预测检查，包括允许重复计算的简单调整。我们还讨论了统计方法来模拟器调整，评估参数的不确定性，并响应不切实际的输出。最后，我们对更大的主题进行更一般性的讨论。
We provide a statistical interpretation of current practice in climate modeling. In this review, we define weather and climate, clarify the relationship between simulator output and simulator climate, distinguish between a climate simulator and a statistical climate model, provide a statistical interpretation of the ubiquitous practice of anomaly correction along with a substantial generalization (the best-parameter approach), and interpret simulator/data comparisons as posterior predictive checking, including a simple adjustment to allow for double counting. We also discuss statistical approaches to simulator tuning, assessing parametric uncertainty, and responding to unrealistic outputs. We finish with a more general discussion of larger themes.