Representation of MJO Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
Representation of MJO Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
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DOI：
10.1175/2011jcli4188.1
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发表时间：
2011-09
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
S. Weaver;Wanqiu Wang;Mingyue Chen;Arun Kumar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Weaver;Wanqiu Wang;Mingyue Chen;Arun Kumar
摘要马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）是气候变率最重要的季节内模态，它对全球气候变化和社会影响具有重要的调节作用。因此，使用最先进的气候数据和建模系统来推进当前对MJO的理解和模拟是提高MJO预测能力的必要目标。在NOAA/NCEP再分析和两个版本的气候预报系统（CFS），CFS版本1（CFSv 1）和其更新版本2（CFSv 2）中评估MJO变率。该分析依靠各种诊断程序，包括MJO对不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）阶段的敏感性。结果表明，在新的NCEP气候预报系统再分析（CFSR）中，MJO变化的代表性得到了显着的改善，这一点可以从输出长波辐射（OLR）功率谱分析和降水和850 hPa纬向风的更相干的传播特征中得到证明。
AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is arguably the most important intraseasonal mode of climate variability, given its significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing the current understanding and simulation of the MJO using state-of-the-art climate data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving MJO prediction capability. MJO variability is assessed in NOAA/NCEP reanalyses and two versions of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), CFS version 1 (CFSv1) and its update version 2 (CFSv2). The analysis leans on a variety of diagnostic procedures and includes MJO sensitivity to varying El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. It is found that significant improvements have been realized in the representation of MJO variations in the new NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSR) as evidenced by outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) power spectral analysis and more coherent propagation characteristics of precipitation and 850-hPa zonal winds...