Calibration and validation of simulated vehicle safety performance at signalized intersections
Calibration and validation of simulated vehicle safety performance at signalized intersections
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2008.01.003
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发表时间：
2008-05-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Saccomanno, Frank F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cunto, Flavio;Saccomanno, Frank F.
提出了一种用于校准和验证安全性能微观模型的系统程序。模型应用中的背景是信号交叉口发生追尾事故的可能性。VISSIM(R)v.4.3为评估单个车辆的安全性能提供了模拟平台，并已使用从FHWA/NGSIM计划提取的不同的观测车辆跟踪数据样本进行了校准和验证。校准工作包括四个连续步骤：(1)初始模型输入的启发式选择，(2)使用Plackett-Burnman设计的统计筛选，(3)将输入与安全性能相关的分数因子分析，以及(4)获得最佳估计输入值的遗传算法程序。考虑了三个安全性能指标：碰撞可能性指数、冲突车辆数量和每辆车的总冲突持续时间。通过比较基于车辆跟踪数据的单独验证样本的模拟和观察的安全性能来评估模型的一致性。所建议的程序被发现有效地估计模型输入参数，该模型输入参数与观察到的验证数据中的安全性能度量非常匹配。该方法为信号交叉口安全性能评价提供了一种客观有效的仿真模型标定方法。(C)2008爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
A systematic procedure is presented for calibrating and validating a microscopic model of safety performance. The context in the model application is the potential for rear-end crashes at signalized intersections. VISSIM (R) v.4.3 provides the simulation platform for estimating the safety performance for individual vehicles and has been calibrated and validated using separate samples of observed vehicle tracking data extracted from the FHWA/NGSIM program. The calibration exercise involves four sequential steps: (1) heuristic selection of initial model inputs, (2) statistical screening using a Plackett-Burnman design, (3) fractional factorial analysis relating inputs to safety performance, and (4) genetic algorithm procedure for obtaining best estimate input values. Three measures of safety performance were considered: crash potential index, number of vehicles in conflict and total conflict duration per vehicle. Model consistency was assessed by comparing simulated and observed safety performance based on a separate validation sample of vehicle tracking data. The suggested procedure was found to effectively estimate model input parameters that closely matched safety performance measures in the observed validation data. This procedure yields an objective and efficient means for simulation model calibration applied for estimating safety performance at signalized intersections. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.