Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability?
Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.010
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Paddock, Susan M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalra, Nidhi;Paddock, Susan M.
自动驾驶汽车有多安全？答案对于确定自动驾驶汽车如何影响机动车安全和公共健康以及制定合理的政策来管理其部署至关重要。评估安全性的一种建议方法是在真实的交通中测试自动驾驶汽车，观察它们的性能，并与人类驾驶员的性能进行统计比较。这种方法是合乎逻辑的，但它是实际的？在本文中，我们计算了为自动驾驶汽车安全提供明确的统计证据所需的行驶里程数。鉴于目前的交通伤亡与车辆行驶里程相比是罕见的事件，我们表明，全自动驾驶汽车必须行驶数亿英里，有时甚至数千亿英里，才能证明其在伤亡方面的可靠性。即使是在激进的测试假设下，现有的车队也需要数十年甚至数百年的时间才能行驶这些里程，如果目的是在将其投放到道路上供消费者使用之前展示其性能，这是不可能的。这些发现表明，这项技术的开发人员和第三方测试人员不能简单地驾驶他们的方式安全。相反，他们需要开发创新的方法来证明安全性和可靠性。然而，仍然有可能无法确定自动驾驶汽车的安全性。不确定性仍将存在。因此，自动驾驶汽车法规必须从一开始就进行适应性设计，以随着技术的发展而发展，以便社会能够更好地利用这些快速发展和潜在变革技术的好处并管理其风险。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
How safe are autonomous vehicles? The answer is critical for determining how autonomous vehicles may shape motor vehicle safety and public health, and for developing sound policies to govern their deployment. One proposed way to assess safety is to test drive autonomous vehicles in real traffic, observe their performance, and make statistical comparisons to human driver performance. This approach is logical, but it is practical? In this paper, we calculate the number of miles of driving that would be needed to provide clear statistical evidence of autonomous vehicle safety. Given that current traffic fatalities and injuries are rare events compared to vehicle miles traveled, we show that fully autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatalities and injuries. Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use. These findings demonstrate that developers of this technology and third-party testers cannot simply drive their way to safety. Instead, they will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrating safety and reliability. And yet, the possibility remains that it will not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Uncertainty will remain. Therefore, it is imperative that autonomous vehicle regulations are adaptive designed from the outset to evolve with the technology so that society can better harness the benefits and manage the risks of these rapidly evolving and potentially transformative technologies. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.