Trophic mismatch requires seasonal heterogeneity of warming.
Trophic mismatch requires seasonal heterogeneity of warming.
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DOI：
10.1890/14-0839.1
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发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
D. Straile;O. Kerimoglu;F. Peeters
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Straile;O. Kerimoglu;F. Peeters
气候变暖已被证明会促进物种的物候。相互作用物种之间的物候的异步变化可能会破坏摄食相互作用（物候失配），这可能对生态系统功能产生巨大影响。长期的实地观察表明，气候变化与气候变暖是不同步的，而实验研究还没有得出结论。使用基于代理的建模三个营养水平（藻类，草食动物和鱼类），我们表明，在物候的异步变化只会发生，如果变暖是季节性的异质性，但如果全年变暖是恒定的。如果变暖是季节性异质性的，那么变暖的程度甚至方向取决于变暖的特定季节性。因此，如果分析不区分季节性恒定变暖和季节性特定变暖，那么关于食物网相互作用中物候不匹配的结论可能会产生有争议的结果。此外，我们的研究结果表明，预测相互作用的物种之间的气候变化需要可靠的变暖预测，解决亚季节的时间尺度。
Climate warming has been shown to advance the phenology of species. Asynchronous changes in phenology between interacting species may disrupt feeding interactions (phenological mismatch), which could have tremendous consequences for ecosystem functioning. Long-term field observations have suggested asynchronous shifts in phenology with warming, whereas experimental studies have not been conclusive. Using proxy-based modeling of three trophic levels (algae, herbivores, and fish), we .show that asynchronous changes in phenology only occur if warming is seasonally heterogeneous, but not if warming is constant throughout the year. If warming is seasonally heterogeneous, the degree and even direction of asynchrony depends on the specific seasonality of the warming. Conclusions about phenological mismatches in food web interactions may therefore produce controversial results if the analyses do not distinguish between seasonally constant and seasonal specific warming. Furthermore, our results suggest that predicting asynchrony between interacting species requires reliable warming predictions that resolve sub-seasonal time scales.