Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction
Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction
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DOI：
10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0080
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发表时间：
2013-12
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Ren Hong-li;Liu Ying;Jin Fei-fei;Yan Yu-ping;Liu Xiang-wen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ren Hong-li;Liu Ying;Jin Fei-fei;Yan Yu-ping;Liu Xiang-wen
本文提出了一种基于模拟量的误差校正（ACE）方法，以改进气候模式对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的预测。ACE方法是基于在类似的历史气候状态下，流量依赖模型的预测误差具有一定程度的相似性的假设，因此可以利用历史误差有效地减小流量依赖模型的预测误差。利用基于历史模拟状态的同一模型诊断出的已知预测误差，可以对当前ENSO预测中的未知误差进行经验性估计。作者首先提出了将ACE方法应用于ENSO预测的基本思路，并在此基础上建立了基于业务气候预测模式的模拟动力ENSO预测系统。作者提出了一些实验结果，这些结果清楚地表明，在ENSO预测中有可能纠正流量依赖的误差，从而将ACE方法应用于基于气候模式的ENSO业务预测。
Abstract In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors (ACE) was introduced to improve El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that the flow-dependent model prediction errors are to some degree similar under analogous historical climate states, and so the historical errors can be used to effectively reduce such flow-dependent errors. With this method, the unknown errors in current ENSO predictions can be empirically estimated by using the known prediction errors which are diagnosed by the same model based on historical analogue states. The authors first propose the basic idea for applying the ACE method to ENSO prediction and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate prediction model. The authors present some experimental results which clearly show the possibility of correcting the flow-dependent errors in ENSO prediction, and thus the potential of applying the ACE method to operational ENSO prediction based on climate models.