PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION IN PATIENT-MANAGEMENT AND CLINICAL-TRIALS
PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION IN PATIENT-MANAGEMENT AND CLINICAL-TRIALS
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780050506
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发表时间：
1986-09-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
SPIEGELHALTER, DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
SPIEGELHALTER, DJ
有人认为，提供准确和有用的概率评估未来的事件应该是一个基本的任务，生物统计学家在临床或实验医学合作，我们探讨了两个方面的获得和评估这样的预测。当患者的协变量信息可用时，逻辑回归和其他多变量技术通常用于选择预后因素并创建预测模型。一个例子显示了如何明确的目标，预测需要考虑在这样的建模，以及如何预测性能可以通过分解的评分规则进行评估。其次，从一个程序，在临床试验中提供试验前和中期预测的结果显示，汇集使用主观意见，贝叶斯方法和技术进行评估和批评的预测。
It is argued that the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of future events should be a fundamental task for biostatisticians collaborating in clinical or experimental medicine, and we explore two aspects of obtaining and evaluating such predictions. When covariate information on patients is available, logistic regression and other multivariate techniques are often used to select prognostic factors and create predictive models. An example shows how the explicit aim of prediction needs to be taken into account in such modelling, and how predictive performance may be assessed by decomposition of a scoring rule. Secondly, results from a program that provides pretrial and interim predictions in clinical trials are displayed, bringing together the use of subjective opinion, Bayesian methodology and techniques for evaluating and criticizing predictions.