SEASONAL-VARIATION IN SURVEY AND SALES ESTIMATES OF ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION
SEASONAL-VARIATION IN SURVEY AND SALES ESTIMATES OF ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION
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DOI：
10.15288/jsa.1993.54.157
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发表时间：
1993-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
KNIBBE, RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
LEMMENS, PHHM;KNIBBE, RA
饮酒的时间变化很大，并且对消费的总体估计有影响。本文表明，由于消费量存在相当大的季节性变化（+/- 20%），在有限时间范围内的调查中预计年度消费量估计值可能会出现严重偏差。本研究分析了 1985 年 3 月至 1985 年 12 月（包括圣诞节和除夕）荷兰普通人群的饮酒数据。由于预计不同测量方法对时间波动的敏感性可能不同，因此比较了几种消费指数。尽管评估的季节性影响确实因测量类型、男性和女性子样本以及酒精饮料类型的不同而有所不同，但总体趋势是春季消费量最高，秋季最低。销售数字也会相应波动。显然，调查时间越短，估计偏差的风险就越大。季节变化在频域中最高。此外，排除在集体假期的时间范围之外，在集体假期期间，人们喝酒的频率更高，每次喝酒的次数也更多（即圣诞节），这会增加估计偏差的风险。在这项研究的三个季节中，即使是对女性戒酒的估计，还有经常大量饮酒的估计，似乎也有很大差异。主要结论是，如果各个调查的时间范围不一致，则饮酒调查数据的比较结果，特别是随时间变化的数据，或多或少是无效的。
Time variation of drinking is substantial and has an effect on aggregate estimates of consumption. In this article it is shown that because of a considerable seasonal variation in consumption (+/- 20%) a serious bias in annual consumption estimates can be expected in surveys with a limited time frame. The present study analyzes drinking data collected in the general population of the Netherlands from March 1985 through December 1985 (including Christmas and New Year's Eve). Since it was expected that sensitivity to temporal fluctuations might not be equal for different methods of measurement, several indices of consumption were compared. Although the assessed seasonal effect varies indeed across types of measurement, across male and female subsample and across types of alcoholic beverage, the general tendency is for consumption to be highest in the spring season and lowest in the autumn. Sales figures fluctuate accordingly. It is evident that the risk of biased estimates is larger the shorter the time frame of the survey. Seasonal variation was highest in the frequency domain. Furthermore, exclusion from the time frame of collective holidays, during which people drink more often and more per occasion (viz., Christmas), increases the risk of biased estimates. Even estimates of abstention, but also regular heavy drinking among women, appear to vary considerably over the three seasons in this study. The main conclusion is that results of comparisons of survey data on drinking, particularly those over time, are more or less invalid if the respective time frames of the surveys do not correspond.