Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century
Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo756
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Hansen, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DeFries, Ruth S.;Rudel, Thomas;Hansen, Matthew
减少热带森林砍伐造成的大气碳排放目前被认为是减缓气候变化的一种具有成本效益的选择。然而，与热带森林损失相关的力量是不确定的(1)。在这里，我们使用基于卫星的2000年至2005年森林损失估算（参考文献2）来评估41个潮湿热带国家的经济、农业和人口相关性。线性回归和回归树两种分析方法表明，这一时期森林损失与城市人口增长和农产品出口呈正相关。农村人口增长与森林损失无关，这表明城市和国际对农产品的需求是森林砍伐的驱动因素。与直觉相反，人们向热带城市迁移的强烈趋势可能与砍伐热带森林的更大压力有关。因此，我们认为，减少地方和农村人口砍伐森林的政策将无法解决未来森林砍伐的主要原因。相反，需要集中努力减少为工业规模、面向出口的农业生产而砍伐森林，同时努力提高非森林土地的产量，以满足对农产品的需求。
Reducing atmospheric carbon emissions from tropical deforestation is at present considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change. However, the forces associated with tropical forest loss are uncertain(1). Here we use satellite-based estimates of forest loss for 2000 to 2005 (ref. 2) to assess economic, agricultural and demographic correlates across 41 countries in the humid tropics. Two methods of analysis-linear regression and regression tree-show that forest loss is positively correlated with urban population growth and exports of agricultural products for this time period. Rural population growth is not associated with forest loss, indicating the importance of urban-based and international demands for agricultural products as drivers of deforestation. The strong trend in movement of people to cities in the tropics is, counter-intuitively, likely to be associated with greater pressures for clearing tropical forests. We therefore suggest that policies to reduce deforestation among local, rural populations will not address the main cause of deforestation in the future. Rather, efforts need to focus on reducing deforestation for industrial-scale, export-oriented agricultural production, concomitant with efforts to increase yields in non-forested lands to satisfy demands for agricultural products.