“Water Wars” and Water Reality: Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways
“Water Wars” and Water Reality: Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways
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“水战”与水现实：国际水道上的冲突与合作
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发表时间：
1999
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通讯作者：
A. Wolf
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作者：
A. Wolf
有261条国际河流，几乎覆盖了地球仪陆地总面积的一半，还有数不清的共有含水层。水一直是阿拉伯人和以色列人、印度人和孟加拉人、美国人和墨西哥人以及尼罗河所有10个沿岸国家之间政治紧张局势的一个原因。水是唯一一种没有替代品的稀缺资源，关于水的国际法还很不发达，而且对水的需求是压倒性的、持续的和直接的。因此，水和战争是两个越来越频繁地一起评估的主题。本章考察了历史上水资源冲突的现实，并为未来水资源战争的可持续性提供了经验教训。冲突的数据集探索那些与水有关的只有七个小规模的冲突被发现在这个世纪，从来没有战争是为了水。相比之下，同期签署了149项与水有关的条约。这些条约连同谈判者的有关说明沿着收集并编入计算机化数据库，对这些条约进行评估，以确定解决冲突的模式。争夺水资源的战争在战略上似乎既不合理，在水文上也不有效，在经济上也不可行。共同利益沿着水道似乎压倒了水的冲突诱发特性。此外，一旦通过条约建立了合作的水资源制度，它们就会随着时间的推移而变得非常有弹性，即使是在敌对的沿岸国家之间，甚至是在其他问题上发生冲突的情况下。这些模式表明，国际水资源更有价值的教训是，水资源的特点往往会引发合作，只有在例外情况下才会引发暴力。
There are 261 international rivers, covering almost one half of the total land surface of the globe, and untold numbers of shared aquifers. Water has been a cause of political tensions between Arabs and Israelis, Indians and Bangladeshis, Americans and Mexicans, and all 10 riparian states of the Nile River. Water is the only scarce resource for which there is no substitute, over which there is poorly developed international law, and the need for which is overwhelming, constant, and immediate. As a consequence, water and war are two topics being assessed together with increasing frequency. This chapter investigates the reality of historic water conflict and draws lessons for the plausibility of future water wars. The data sets of conflict are explored for those related to water—only seven minor skirmishes are found in this century; no war has ever been fought over water. In contrast, 149 water-related treaties have been signed in the same period. These treaties, collected and catalogued in a computerized database along with relevant notes from negotiators, are assessed for patterns of conflict resolution. War over water seems neither strategically rational, hydrographically effective, nor economically viable. Shared interests along a waterway seem to overwhelm water’s conflict-inducing characteristics. Furthermore, once cooperative water regimes are established through treaty, they turn out to be tremendously resilient over time, even between otherwise hostile riparian states, and even as conflict is waged over other issues. These patterns suggest that the more valuable lesson of international water is as a resource whose characteristics tend to induce cooperation, and incite violence only in the exception.