RESEARCH ON SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION LAWS AND EARLY WARNING-PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES
RESEARCH ON SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION LAWS AND EARLY WARNING-PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES
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发表时间：
2008
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通讯作者：
Huang Xue-bin
中科院分区：
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作者：
Huang Xue-bin
滑坡预测是工程地质领域的热点问题之一，但相关理论至今尚未完善。结合近年来几例边坡预测与监测实践的经验教训，分析了滑坡变形随时间的三阶段规律以及不同变形阶段裂缝空间演化的各类特征，还有外部因素对边坡变形演化的影响。得出以下结果：（1）边坡变形在时间上经历三个阶段，即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段；正确预测边坡变形阶段是准确滑坡预测的基础。（2）随着边坡变形在空间上的增加，地表裂缝将逐渐形成一个完整的裂缝系统。时空变形演化的综合分析是准确边坡预测的关键。还可以得出结论，对滑坡变形演化、外部影响因素和宏观变形破坏迹象之间相关性的分析，是处理滑坡阶梯式变形曲线的一种有效方法。
Landslide prediction is one of the hot issues in the field of engineering geology,but the relevant theories have not been well built up so far.Combining the experience and lessons from the practices of the several cases of slope prediction and monitoring in recent years,the three-phase law of landslide deformation with time and assorted characters of cracks spatial evolution in different deformation periods,and the effects of the external factors on the evolution of slope deformation are analyzed.The following results are drawn.(1) The slope deformation experiences three stages in time,i.e.initial deformation stage,constant deformation stage and accelerative deformation stage;and the correct prediction of slope deformation stage is the basis of exact landslide prediction.(2) The cracks on the ground surface will form a complete crack system gradually with the increase of the slope deformation in space.The synthetic analysis of temporal-spatial deformation evolution is the key of accurate slope prediction.It can also be concluded that the analysis of correlation among landslide deformation evolution,external influential factors and macroscopically deformation failure evidence,is an effective method to deal with step-type deformation curve of landslide.