Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study
Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(05)67889-0
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Scazufca, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferri, CP;Prince, M;Scazufca, M
阿尔茨海默氏病在首次被描述100年后，已成为世界范围内最致残和负担最重的健康状况之一。我们使用的德尔菲共识的方法，以确定痴呆症的患病率为每个世界region.Methods 12个国际专家提供了一个系统的审查发表的研究痴呆症，并要求提供患病率估计为每个世界卫生组织的世界地区，男性和女性相结合，在5年的年龄段从60岁到84岁，为那些年龄在85岁及以上。联合国人口估计和预测用于估计2001年，2020年和2040年痴呆症患者的人数。我们估计发病率的患病率，缓解，和mortals.Findings证据精心策划的，有代表性的流行病学调查是稀缺的，在许多地区。我们估计，今天有2430万人患有痴呆症，每年有460万例新的痴呆症病例（每7秒就有一例新病例）。到2040年，受影响的人数将每20年翻一番，达到8 110万人。大多数痴呆症患者生活在发展中国家（2001年为60%，到2040年将上升至71%）。增长率是不统一的，在发达国家的数字预计将增加100%，在2001年和2040年之间，但超过300%，在印度，中国，以及他们的南亚和西太平洋邻国。解释我们认为，本文中的详细估计构成了目前最好的决策，规划和分配的卫生和福利资源的基础。
Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer's disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region.Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality.Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81.1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours.Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.