STOCK MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF DUTCH HOUSEHOLDS
STOCK MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF DUTCH HOUSEHOLDS
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DOI：
10.1002/jae.1242
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Winter, Joachim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hurd, Michael;Van Rooij, Maarten;Winter, Joachim
尽管它对于分析生命周期行为，特别是退休规划很重要，但私人家庭持有股票的情况却鲜为人知。在研究这一谜题的其他方法中，最近的研究已经开始引发私人家庭对股市回报的预期。本文报告了一项研究的结果，该研究收集了两年时间内家庭对股市的预期(主观收益或损失的概率)和他们是否拥有股票的数据。我们记录了金融市场预期的显著异质性。预期与股票所有权相关。在我们两年的数据中，股市价格上涨，对未来股市价格变化的预期也增加，支持了预期受到近期股票涨跌影响的观点。版权所有(C)2011 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
Despite its importance for the analysis of life cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a 2-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the 2 years of our data stock market prices increased and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.