Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 and government response in South Korea (as of May 31, 2020)
Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 and government response in South Korea (as of May 31, 2020)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.004
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Castro, Marcia C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Sun;Castro, Marcia C.
目的：本研究的目的是评估 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 在韩国各地区的聚集情况，并评估聚集的模式和持续时间是否随着该国的遏制策略而发生变化。方法：对 2020 年 1 月 20 日至 5 月 31 日韩国 250 个地区每日确诊的 COVID-19 病例进行时空分析，数据来自韩国疾病控制与预防中心和各省网站。采用全局Moran's I统计量进行空间自相关分析，并采用回顾性时空扫描统计分析COVID-19的时空集群。结果：地理分布表现出较强的空间自相关性，全局Moran's I系数为0.784（p = 0.0001）。使用离散泊松模型通过时空扫描统计识别出十二个具有统计显着性的时空簇。随着时间的推移，集群的空间格局发生了变化，集群的持续时间也变得更短。结论：结果表明，韩国针对 COVID-19 的遏制策略在早期发现和缓解方面都非常有效，最近的集群规模较小，持续时间也较小。韩国的教训应该引发有关疫情应对的讨论。 (C) 2020 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess how coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clustered across districts in South Korea and to assess whether the pattern and duration of clusters changed following the country's containment strategy.Methods: A spatiotemporal analysis of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases by 250 districts in South Korea from January 20 to May 31, 2020, obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and each provincial website, was conducted. The global Moran's I statistic was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the retrospective space-time scan statistic was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19.Results: The geographical distribution showed strong spatial autocorrelation, with a global Moran's I coefficient of 0.784 (p = 0.0001). Twelve statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified by space-time scan statistic using a discrete Poisson model. The spatial pattern of clusters changed and the duration of clusters became shorter over time.Conclusions: The results indicate that South Korea's containment strategy for COVID-19 was highly effective in both early detection and mitigation, with recent clusters being small in size and duration. Lessons from South Korea should spark a discussion on epidemic response. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.