Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards
Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152552
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发表时间：
2022-01-13
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
McCloskey, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cremen, Gemma;Galasso, Carmine;McCloskey, John
随着气候变化、人口增长、资产财富积累以及社会变得更加城市化和相互联系，理解和模拟自然灾害带来的未来风险变得越来越重要。 2015-2030 年仙台减少灾害风险框架认识到了这一需求，该框架强调了通过旨在最大限度地减少危险地区不受控制的发展的战略/政策为我们的世界明天可能面临的灾害做好准备的重要性。虽然迄今为止绝大多数自然灾害风险评估框架都关注与当前条件相关的静态影响和/或受历史背景的影响，但一些作者试图为决策者提供可用于培育可持续未来的风险量化方法。本次审查记录了这些努力，明确审查了对构成未来风险的各个组成部分进行建模和量化的工作，即受气候变化影响的未来自然灾害、未来暴露（例如，在人口、土地利用和建筑环境方面）以及世界基础设施不断变化的物理脆弱性。最后，我们讨论了建模者在确定未来世界可能面临的自然灾害风险时所面临的挑战，以及这些挑战对相关利益相关者决策能力的限制。
Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders.