Building robust conservation plans
Building robust conservation plans
复制标题
制定强有力的保护计划
DOI：
10.1111/cobi.12416
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
L. Joppa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Visconti;L. Joppa
系统的保护规划通过考虑社会经济成本，同时旨在实现规定的保护目标，优化生物多样性保护和人类活动之间的权衡。然而，最具成本效益的保护计划可能与实现保护目标的任何其他计划非常不同。这在实现不确定性的条件下是有问题的（例如，如果计划的全部或部分变得无法实现）。我们确定通过模拟并行实施的保护计划和栖息地丧失的条件下，最佳的计划有有限的机会，实施的尝试将无法达到目标。然后，我们设计了一种新的、灵活的方法来确定保护优先事项和安排保护行动。该方法需要产生多个备选方案，计算所有方案之间的场地组成相似度，并选择相似空间中相邻方案密度最高的方案。我们比较了我们的方法与经典的方法，最大限度地提高成本效率与合成和真实的数据集。当实施是不确定的，一个共同的现实，我们的方法提供了更高的可能性，实现保护目标。我们发现，χ，一个保护计划实现的目标，如果该计划不能完全实施的不足的措施，是决定相对性能的一个灵活性增强的方法，以保护优先级的主要因素。我们的研究结果应该有助于规划当局在面对未来条件和场地可用性的不确定性时优先考虑保护工作。
Systematic conservation planning optimizes trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and human activities by accounting for socioeconomic costs while aiming to achieve prescribed conservation objectives. However, the most cost‐efficient conservation plan can be very dissimilar to any other plan achieving the set of conservation objectives. This is problematic under conditions of implementation uncertainty (e.g., if all or part of the plan becomes unattainable). We determined through simulations of parallel implementation of conservation plans and habitat loss the conditions under which optimal plans have limited chances of implementation and where implementation attempts would fail to meet objectives. We then devised a new, flexible method for identifying conservation priorities and scheduling conservation actions. This method entails generating a number of alternative plans, calculating the similarity in site composition among all plans, and selecting the plan with the highest density of neighboring plans in similarity space. We compared our method with the classic method that maximizes cost efficiency with synthetic and real data sets. When implementation was uncertain—a common reality—our method provided higher likelihood of achieving conservation targets. We found that χ, a measure of the shortfall in objectives achieved by a conservation plan if the plan could not be implemented entirely, was the main factor determining the relative performance of a flexibility enhanced approach to conservation prioritization. Our findings should help planning authorities prioritize conservation efforts in the face of uncertainty about future condition and availability of sites.